⚽ Major League Soccer
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: New York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union finished 1-3. Philadelphia Union won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
New York Red Bulls face Philadelphia Union in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: New York Red Bulls have 1 win from their last 5, while Philadelphia Union have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.8-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
| 2 | 3.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.37, with a 72% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a New York Red Bulls win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points yes (71%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union. Wins shown from New York Red Bulls’s perspective: 1 drawn · Philadelphia Union 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | New York Red Bulls | 1 – 3 | Philadelphia Union | L |
| 2026-07-22 | Philadelphia Union | 3 – 1 | New York Red Bulls | L |
| 2024-08-31 | New York Red Bulls | 0 – 2 | Philadelphia Union | L |
| 2024-07-06 | Philadelphia Union | 0 – 0 | New York Red Bulls | D |
| 2023-09-03 | Philadelphia Union | 4 – 1 | New York Red Bulls | L |
📈 Recent form
New York Red Bulls come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at New York City FC. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Los Angeles FC.
- WNew York City FC 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- WColumbus Crew 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- LLos Angeles FC 2-0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- DSeattle Sounders 0-0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- LNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Philadelphia Union come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at San Diego. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 3 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. MarcucciKnee Injury
- R. MosqueraThigh Injury
- A. BedoyaKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices New York Red Bulls at 42% to win and Philadelphia Union at 33%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls Win | 42% | 32% | @ 2.88 |
| Philadelphia Union Win | 33% | 43% | @ 2.15 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | @ 3.85 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York Red Bulls or Draw at 1.66 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls or Draw | 68% | 57% | @ 1.66 |
| Philadelphia Union or Draw | 59% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 72% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 86% | @ 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 | 72% | 69% | @ 1.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 51% | 48% | @ 1.96 |
| Under 3.5 | 49% | 52% | @ 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
| Under 1.5 | 11% | 14% | @ 6.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 71%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 71% | 69% | @ 1.35 |
| BTTS No | 29% | 31% | @ 2.95 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.37, with a 72% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.
Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
Our model makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.8-2.0 scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union.
What is the predicted score for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.77 for New York Red Bulls and 1.97 for Philadelphia Union. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union play?
Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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