Sat 17 Oct0-2Finished

⚽ Major League Soccer

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 23:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: New York Red Bulls 0-2 Toronto FC

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC finished 0-2. Toronto FC won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

New York Red Bulls face Toronto FC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: New York Red Bulls have 3 wins from their last 5, while Toronto FC have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, New York Red Bulls won 3, Toronto FC won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.6-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

New York Red Bulls +0.5 @ 1.32

72%Bookmaker odds imply 72%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.64 – 1.28 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.4%	6.9%	4.4%	1.9%	0.6%
1	8.8%	11.3%	7.2%	3.1%	1.0%
2	7.3%	9.3%	5.9%	2.5%	0.8%
3	4.0%	5.1%	3.2%	1.4%	0.4%
4	1.6%	2.1%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

New York Red Bulls winDrawToronto FC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is New York Red Bulls to win or draw at odds 1.32, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a New York Red Bulls win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

New York Red Bulls 53%Draw 24%Toronto FC 23%

53%24%23%

53%

New York Red Bulls Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC. Wins shown from New York Red Bulls’s perspective: New York Red Bulls 3 · 1 drawn · Toronto FC 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-17	New York Red Bulls	0 – 2	Toronto FC	L
2024-10-02	Toronto FC	1 – 4	New York Red Bulls	W
2024-06-22	New York Red Bulls	3 – 0	Toronto FC	W
2023-10-07	New York Red Bulls	3 – 0	Toronto FC	W
2023-05-17	Toronto FC	0 – 0	New York Red Bulls	D

📈 Recent form

New York Red Bulls

New York Red Bulls come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to San Diego. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Toronto FC.

LNew York Red Bulls 0-2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
LDC United 2-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
WNew York Red Bulls 4-1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
LNew York Red Bulls 0-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
WNew York City FC 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer

Toronto FC

Toronto FC come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 9. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at New York Red Bulls. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Nashville SC.

WNew York Red Bulls 0-2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
DToronto FC 3-3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
WToronto FC 2-1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
LNashville SC 2-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
LSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

New York Red Bulls

A. MarcucciKnee Injury

Toronto FC

B. KuscevicSuspended (cards)
R. LaryeaSuspended (cards)
N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
W. ZimmermanAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices New York Red Bulls at 53% to win and Toronto FC at 23%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
New York Red Bulls Win	53%	47%	@ 2.00
Draw	24%	24%	@ 4.00
Toronto FC Win	23%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York Red Bulls or Draw at 1.33 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
New York Red Bulls or Draw	77%	71%	@ 1.33
Toronto FC or Draw	48%	53%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	85%	@ 1.11
Under 3.5	66%	54%	@ 1.73
Over 2.5	56%	67%	@ 1.40
Under 2.5	44%	33%	@ 2.88
Over 3.5	34%	46%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	21%	15%	@ 6.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	66%	@ 1.40
BTTS No	44%	34%	@ 2.75

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when New York Red Bulls or Toronto FC is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
New York Red Bulls +1.5	92%	85%	@ 1.12
New York Red Bulls +1.25	88%	84%	1.12
New York Red Bulls +1	84%	83%	1.14
New York Red Bulls +0.75	80%	76%	1.23
Toronto FC +2	80%	83%	1.14
New York Red Bulls +0.5	77%	72%	@ 1.32
Toronto FC +1.75	76%	76%	1.23
Toronto FC +1.5	72%	71%	1.33
New York Red Bulls +0.25	71%	68%	1.40
Toronto FC +1.25	66%	68%	1.40
New York Red Bulls 0	65%	64%	1.50
Toronto FC +1	60%	64%	1.49
New York Red Bulls -0.25	58%	56%	@ 1.72
Toronto FC +0.75	54%	56%	1.69
New York Red Bulls -0.5	52%	49%	@ 1.96
Toronto FC +0.5	48%	51%	1.88
New York Red Bulls -0.75	46%	44%	@ 2.19
Toronto FC +0.25	42%	44%	2.15
New York Red Bulls -1	40%	36%	@ 2.66
Toronto FC 0	35%	36%	2.61
New York Red Bulls -1.25	34%	32%	@ 2.99
Toronto FC -0.25	29%	32%	2.98
New York Red Bulls -1.5	28%	29%	3.31
New York Red Bulls -1.75	24%	24%	4.00
Toronto FC -0.5	23%	28%	3.39
New York Red Bulls -2	20%	17%	@ 5.75
Toronto FC -0.75	19%	24%	4.00
Toronto FC -1	16%	17%	5.75
Toronto FC -1.25	12%	16%	6.00
Toronto FC -1.5	8%	15%	6.40

📈 How the market moved

New York Red Bulls 47%Draw 24%Toronto FC 29%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

Our pick is New York Red Bulls to win or draw at odds 1.32, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

Our model makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC.

What is the predicted score for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.64 for New York Red Bulls and 1.28 for Toronto FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 23:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.