⚽ Major League Soccer
Orlando City SC vs San Diego Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Orlando City SC vs San Diego in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Orlando City SC 1-0 San Diego
Orlando City SC vs San Diego finished 1-0. Orlando City SC won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Orlando City SC face San Diego in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Orlando City SC have 1 win from their last 5, while San Diego have 3 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Orlando City SC win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 2.0-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Orlando City SC vs San Diego with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Orlando City SC vs San Diego comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Orlando City SC with a +0.75 start at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Orlando City SC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points yes (64%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Orlando City SC come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Toronto FC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-4 at New England Revolution.
- LNew England Revolution 4-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- LColumbus Crew 2-1 Orlando City SCUS Open Cup
- WOrlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WAtlanta United FC 2-3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- WOrlando City SC 1-0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
San Diego come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Los Angeles Galaxy. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at home to Philadelphia Union.
- DInter Miami 2-2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- LSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- LSan Diego 2-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- LOrlando City SC 1-0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 3-1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. MarinThigh Injury
- N. MillerKnee Injury
- B. OjedaFoot Injury
- M. IngvartsenInjury
- P. SisniegaBack Injury
- J. TverskovSuspended (red card)
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Orlando City SC at 51% to win and San Diego at 23%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Orlando City SC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC Win | 51% | 46% | @ 2.02 |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | @ 3.95 |
| San Diego Win | 23% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Orlando City SC or Draw at 1.35 (76% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC or Draw | 76% | 70% | @ 1.35 |
| San Diego or Draw | 48% | 54% | @ 1.76 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 69% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 87% | @ 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 70% | @ 1.34 |
| Under 3.5 | 52% | 50% | @ 1.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 50% | @ 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Under 1.5 | 13% | 13% | @ 7.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 70% | @ 1.33 |
| BTTS No | 36% | 30% | @ 3.05 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Orlando City SC or San Diego is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC +1.5 | 91% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Orlando City SC +1.25 | 88% | 82% | @ 1.16 |
| Orlando City SC +1 | 84% | 80% | 1.18 |
| San Diego +2 | 80% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Orlando City SC +0.75 | 80% | 74% | @ 1.28 |
| San Diego +1.75 | 76% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Orlando City SC +0.5 | 76% | 69% | @ 1.39 |
| San Diego +1.5 | 72% | 74% | 1.27 |
| Orlando City SC +0.25 | 70% | 65% | @ 1.47 |
| San Diego +1.25 | 66% | 71% | 1.34 |
| Orlando City SC 0 | 64% | 59% | @ 1.61 |
| San Diego +1 | 60% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Orlando City SC -0.25 | 58% | 51% | @ 1.86 |
| San Diego +0.75 | 54% | 60% | 1.57 |
| Orlando City SC -0.5 | 52% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| San Diego +0.5 | 48% | 55% | 1.75 |
| Orlando City SC -0.75 | 46% | 40% | @ 2.40 |
| San Diego +0.25 | 42% | 49% | 1.98 |
| Orlando City SC -1 | 40% | 32% | @ 2.98 |
| San Diego 0 | 36% | 41% | 2.34 |
| Orlando City SC -1.25 | 34% | 29% | @ 3.30 |
| San Diego -0.25 | 30% | 35% | 2.71 |
| Orlando City SC -1.5 | 28% | 26% | 3.55 |
| Orlando City SC -1.75 | 24% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
| San Diego -0.5 | 24% | 31% | 3.03 |
| San Diego -0.75 | 20% | 26% | 3.65 |
| Orlando City SC -2 | 20% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| San Diego -1 | 16% | 20% | 4.80 |
| San Diego -1.25 | 12% | 18% | 5.25 |
| San Diego -1.5 | 9% | 17% | 5.75 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Orlando City SC vs San Diego?
Our model's main pick is Orlando City SC with a +0.75 start at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Orlando City SC vs San Diego?
Our model makes an Orlando City SC win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.6 scoreline for Orlando City SC vs San Diego.
What is the predicted score for Orlando City SC vs San Diego?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.97 for Orlando City SC and 1.61 for San Diego. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Orlando City SC and San Diego play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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