Pafos

Thu 22 Oct16:45Upcoming

Riga

⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Pafos vs Riga Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Pafos vs Riga in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Pafos face Riga in the UEFA Europa Conference League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Pafos win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.5-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Pafos vs Riga with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.40

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.49 – 0.81 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	8.1%	3.3%	0.9%	0.2%
1	14.9%	12.1%	4.9%	1.3%	0.3%
2	11.1%	9.0%	3.7%	1.0%	0.2%
3	5.5%	4.5%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
4	2.1%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Pafos winDrawRiga win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Pafos vs Riga comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Pafos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Pafos 44%Draw 28%Riga 29%

44%28%29%

44%

Pafos Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Pafos

Pafos come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Anorthosis. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Atalanta.

DPafos 0-0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
LAtalanta 3-1 PafosUEFA Europa Conference
WAnorthosis 1-3 Pafos1. Division
LPafos 0-2 AEL1. Division
WAEK Larnaca 0-1 Pafos1. Division

Riga

Riga come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Tukums. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WRiga 2-1 Super NovaVirsliga
DRiga 1-1 Kairat AlmatyUEFA Europa Conference
WTukums 0-2 RigaVirsliga
WAris 1-2 RigaFriendlies Clubs
WFS Jelgava 0-1 RigaVirsliga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Pafos at 44% to win and Riga at 29%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Pafos win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Pafos Win	44%	59%	@ 1.57
Riga Win	29%	18%	@ 5.25
Draw	28%	23%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Pafos or Draw at 1.17 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Pafos or Draw	70%	82%	@ 1.17
Riga or Draw	56%	41%	@ 2.25

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	66%	@ 1.40
Over 1.5	67%	77%	@ 1.22
Under 2.5	60%	45%	@ 2.08
Over 2.5	40%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 1.5	33%	23%	@ 4.00
Over 3.5	20%	34%	@ 2.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	58%	46%	@ 2.00
BTTS Yes	42%	54%	@ 1.73

📈 How the market moved

Pafos 60%Draw 23%Riga 17%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	64%
Dixon-Coles	Home	40%
GradientBoosting	Home	38%

All three of our models point the same way on the match result.

Expected goals: 1.47 for the home side, 1.15 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Pafos vs Riga?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Pafos vs Riga?

Our model makes a Pafos win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.8 scoreline for Pafos vs Riga.

What is the predicted score for Pafos vs Riga?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.49 for Pafos and 0.81 for Riga. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Pafos and Riga play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.