Sat 12 Sep2-0Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Palmeiras vs São Paulo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Palmeiras vs São Paulo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 21:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Palmeiras 2-0 São Paulo

Palmeiras vs São Paulo finished 2-0. Palmeiras won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.28, landed.

Palmeiras face São Paulo in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 21:30 UTC. Recent form: Palmeiras have 1 win from their last 5, while São Paulo have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Palmeiras won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 60%, projecting a 1.7-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Palmeiras vs São Paulo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.67 – 0.75 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	6.7%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%
1	14.8%	11.1%	4.2%	1.0%	0.2%
2	12.4%	9.3%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%
3	6.9%	5.2%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
4	2.9%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Palmeiras winDrawSão Paulo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs São Paulo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Palmeiras win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 60%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Palmeiras 60%Draw 24%São Paulo 17%

60%24%17%

60%

Palmeiras Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Palmeiras and São Paulo. Wins shown from Palmeiras’s perspective: Palmeiras 4 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-12	Palmeiras	2 – 0	São Paulo	W
2024-08-18	Palmeiras	2 – 1	São Paulo	W
2024-04-29	São Paulo	0 – 0	Palmeiras	D
2023-10-25	Palmeiras	5 – 0	São Paulo	W
2023-06-11	São Paulo	0 – 2	Palmeiras	W

📈 Recent form

Palmeiras

Palmeiras come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to São Paulo. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at LDU de Quito.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LLDU de Quito 3-2 PalmeirasCONMEBOL Libertadores
WPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 1-0 LDU de QuitoCONMEBOL Libertadores
DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A

São Paulo

São Paulo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Atlético Mineiro. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Palmeiras.

WSão Paulo 1-0 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
DSão Paulo 1-1 Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
LBoca Juniors 1-0 São PauloCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WSão Paulo 2-0 Atlético MineiroBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Palmeiras

A. BarbozaSuspended (red card)
JefteKnee Injury
Marlon FreitasSuspended (cards)
PaulinhoMuscle Injury
R. SosaMuscle Injury

São Paulo

D. BobadillaNot in squad
Lucas MouraAchilles Tendon Injury
Lucca MarquesJaw injury
LucianoNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Palmeiras at 60% to win and São Paulo at 17%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras Win	60%	57%	@ 1.67
Draw	24%	25%	@ 3.80
São Paulo Win	17%	18%	@ 5.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.17 (83% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras or Draw	83%	82%	@ 1.17
São Paulo or Draw	40%	43%	@ 2.15

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	73%	@ 1.30
Over 1.5	70%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	56%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 2.5	44%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	30%	28%	@ 3.40
Over 3.5	22%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	56%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS Yes	44%	48%	@ 1.95

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Palmeiras or São Paulo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras +0.75	86%	86%	1.10
Palmeiras +0.5	83%	81%	1.17
Palmeiras +0.25	77%	–	1.21
São Paulo +2	74%	81%	1.17
Palmeiras 0	72%	–	1.25
São Paulo +1.75	69%	74%	1.28
Palmeiras -0.25	66%	66%	1.45
São Paulo +1.5	64%	68%	1.41
Palmeiras -0.5	61%	58%	1.65
São Paulo +1.25	58%	63%	1.51
Palmeiras -0.75	54%	52%	@ 1.85
São Paulo +1	52%	57%	1.68
Palmeiras -1	48%	43%	@ 2.21
São Paulo +0.75	46%	48%	2.01
Palmeiras -1.25	42%	37%	@ 2.56
São Paulo +0.5	40%	42%	2.25
Palmeiras -1.5	36%	32%	@ 2.92
São Paulo +0.25	34%	34%	2.77
Palmeiras -1.75	31%	26%	@ 3.67
Palmeiras -2	26%	19%	@ 5.00
São Paulo -0.5	17%	19%	5.00
São Paulo -0.75	14%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

Palmeiras 57%Draw 25%São Paulo 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs São Paulo?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs São Paulo?

Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 60%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.8 scoreline for Palmeiras vs São Paulo.

What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs São Paulo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.67 for Palmeiras and 0.75 for São Paulo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Palmeiras and São Paulo play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 21:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.