⚽ Brazilian Série A

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Palmeiras face Vasco DA Gama in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Palmeiras won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 1.6-0.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.33

81%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.65 – 0.59 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.6%	6.3%	1.9%	0.4%	0.1%
1	17.6%	10.4%	3.1%	0.6%	0.1%
2	14.5%	8.6%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%
3	8.0%	4.7%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%
4	3.3%	1.9%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Palmeiras winDrawVasco DA Gama win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Palmeiras win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean under 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points no (64%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 1.85 (+17.5% model value).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 1.85, 64% model probability, +17.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Palmeiras 64%Draw 24%Vasco DA Gama 13%

64%24%13%

64%

Palmeiras Win

61%

Under 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS no

+17.5%

Best value: BTTS No

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama. Wins shown from Palmeiras’s perspective: Palmeiras 3 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-09-22	Vasco DA Gama	0 – 1	Palmeiras	W
2024-06-14	Palmeiras	2 – 0	Vasco DA Gama	W
2023-08-27	Palmeiras	1 – 0	Vasco DA Gama	W
2023-04-23	Vasco DA Gama	2 – 2	Palmeiras	D

📈 Recent form

Palmeiras

Palmeiras come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Fortaleza EC. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Fluminense.

WCerro Porteno 0-1 PalmeirasCONMEBOL Libertadores
LFluminense 3-2 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
DPalmeiras 1-1 Cerro PortenoCONMEBOL Libertadores
DPalmeiras 0-0 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 3-0 Fortaleza ECCopa Do Brasil

Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Olimpia. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at home to Santos.

WOlimpia 1-4 Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LVasco DA Gama 0-3 SantosBrazilian Série A
DVasco DA Gama 0-0 OlimpiaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
DBahia 0-0 Vasco DA GamaBrazilian Série A
DVasco DA Gama 0-0 FluminenseCopa Do Brasil

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Palmeiras

JefteKnee Injury
PaulinhoMuscle Injury
R. SosaMuscle Injury

Vasco DA Gama

BrennerInjury
Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury
JairInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Palmeiras at 64% to win and Vasco DA Gama at 13%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Palmeiras Win	64%	@ 1.64	+4.5%
Draw	24%	@ 3.80	-9.8%
Vasco DA Gama Win	13%	@ 5.10	-35.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.15 (86% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Palmeiras or Draw	86%	@ 1.15	-1.6%
Vasco DA Gama or Draw	35%	@ 2.15	-25.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	34%	@ 3.55	+22.5%
Under 2.5	61%	@ 1.91	+16.9%
Under 3.5	81%	@ 1.33	+7.9%
Over 1.5	66%	@ 1.28	-16.2%
Over 2.5	39%	@ 1.85	-28.2%
Over 3.5	19%	@ 3.20	-39.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	64%	@ 1.85	+17.5%
BTTS Yes	36%	@ 1.83	-33.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	63%
Dixon-Coles	Home	62%
GradientBoosting	Home	64%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 2.03 for the home side, 0.83 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (19%), 2-0 (16%), 0-0 (15%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with 81% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 1.85 (+17.5% value).

Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 1.6-0.6 scoreline for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama.

What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.65 for Palmeiras and 0.59 for Vasco DA Gama. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.