vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Philadelphia Union 2-0 CF Montreal
Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal finished 2-0. Philadelphia Union won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, CF Montreal Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.39, was void (stake returned).
Philadelphia Union face CF Montreal in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Philadelphia Union have 3 wins from their last 5, while CF Montreal have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 3, CF Montreal won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 2.0-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is CF Montreal Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.39, the selection our model is most confident in at 84%. On the match result, the model rates a Philadelphia Union win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (62%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is CF Montreal to win or draw at odds 2.87 (+55.2% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal. Wins shown from Philadelphia Union’s perspective: Philadelphia Union 3 · 1 drawn · CF Montreal 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Philadelphia Union | 2 – 0 | CF Montreal | W |
| 2026-04-11 | CF Montreal | 1 – 2 | Philadelphia Union | W |
| 2024-06-29 | CF Montreal | 4 – 2 | Philadelphia Union | L |
| 2024-06-01 | Philadelphia Union | 2 – 2 | CF Montreal | D |
| 2023-06-03 | Philadelphia Union | 3 – 0 | CF Montreal | W |
📈 Recent form
Philadelphia Union come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to CF Montreal. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- DAustin 1-1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- DPhiladelphia Union 2-2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- WNew York City FC 2-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
CF Montreal come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Columbus Crew. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Philadelphia Union.
- LPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- DVancouver Whitecaps 1-1 CF MontrealCanadian Championship
- LInter Miami 7-1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- DCF Montreal 2-2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- WColumbus Crew 1-2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. BedoyaKnee Injury
- F. AmayaLower-Body Injury
- E. MoralesToe Injury
- B. HidalgoGroin Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Philadelphia Union at 46% to win and CF Montreal at 28%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal Win | 28% | @ 5.80 | +64.0% |
| Draw | 26% | @ 4.50 | +15.6% |
| Philadelphia Union Win | 46% | @ 1.47 | -32.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is CF Montreal or Draw at 2.55 (54% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal or Draw | 54% | @ 2.55 | +37.9% |
| Philadelphia Union or Draw | 72% | @ 1.12 | -19.7% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85% | @ 1.12 | -4.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | @ 1.44 | -5.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 56% | @ 1.68 | -5.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | @ 2.70 | -7.2% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | @ 2.12 | -7.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 15% | @ 5.80 | -13.5% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 62% | @ 1.56 | -3.3% |
| BTTS No | 38% | @ 2.28 | -13.4% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Philadelphia Union or CF Montreal is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal -0.25 | 35% | @ 5.50 | +91.2% |
| CF Montreal +0.25 | 48% | @ 3.61 | +71.9% |
| CF Montreal -0.5 | 28% | @ 6.00 | +70.0% |
| CF Montreal -0.75 | 24% | @ 6.60 | +58.7% |
| CF Montreal +0.5 | 54% | @ 2.87 | +55.2% |
| CF Montreal +0.75 | 60% | @ 2.54 | +51.9% |
| CF Montreal +1 | 66% | @ 2.26 | +48.2% |
| CF Montreal +1.25 | 71% | @ 1.94 | +38.1% |
| CF Montreal +1.5 | 77% | @ 1.73 | +33.4% |
| CF Montreal +1.75 | 81% | @ 1.56 | +25.7% |
| CF Montreal +2 | 84% | @ 1.39 | +16.4% |
| Philadelphia Union +0.75 | 76% | 1.11 | -15.7% |
| Philadelphia Union +0.5 | 72% | 1.12 | -19.7% |
| Philadelphia Union +0.25 | 65% | 1.15 | -25.0% |
| Philadelphia Union 0 | 59% | 1.19 | -30.0% |
| Philadelphia Union -0.25 | 52% | 1.29 | -32.2% |
| Philadelphia Union -0.5 | 46% | 1.42 | -34.8% |
| Philadelphia Union -0.75 | 40% | 1.51 | -39.1% |
| Philadelphia Union -1 | 34% | 1.66 | -43.0% |
| Philadelphia Union -1.25 | 29% | 1.91 | -45.3% |
| Philadelphia Union -2 | 16% | 3.04 | -51.4% |
| Philadelphia Union -1.5 | 23% | 2.12 | -51.4% |
| Philadelphia Union -1.75 | 19% | 2.44 | -52.7% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
Our main pick is CF Montreal Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.39, with 84% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is CF Montreal to win or draw at 2.87 (+55.2% value).
Who is the favourite for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.3 scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.04 for Philadelphia Union and 1.34 for CF Montreal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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