⚽ Major League Soccer
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Philadelphia Union 5-0 FC Cincinnati
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati finished 5-0. Philadelphia Union won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, FC Cincinnati Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.35, did not land.
Philadelphia Union face FC Cincinnati in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Philadelphia Union have 3 wins from their last 5, while FC Cincinnati have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 1, FC Cincinnati won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 2.1-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is FC Cincinnati Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.35, with a 86% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Philadelphia Union win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (78%), both teams to score points yes (74%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati. Wins shown from Philadelphia Union’s perspective: Philadelphia Union 1 · 1 drawn · FC Cincinnati 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Philadelphia Union | 5 – 0 | FC Cincinnati | W |
| 2024-10-20 | Philadelphia Union | 1 – 2 | FC Cincinnati | L |
| 2024-06-19 | FC Cincinnati | 4 – 3 | Philadelphia Union | L |
| 2023-11-26 | FC Cincinnati | 1 – 0 | Philadelphia Union | L |
| 2023-09-16 | Philadelphia Union | 2 – 2 | FC Cincinnati | D |
📈 Recent form
Philadelphia Union come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at San Diego. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
FC Cincinnati come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 15. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Philadelphia Union.
- DHouston Dynamo 2-2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- DFC Cincinnati 3-3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- LPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- LNashville SC 4-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- DFC Cincinnati 1-1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. AnelloMuscle Injury
- P. NdingaHamstring Injury
- S. GidiInjury
- K. FletcherKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Philadelphia Union at 39% to win and FC Cincinnati at 36%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union Win | 39% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
| FC Cincinnati Win | 36% | 22% | @ 4.20 |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | @ 4.25 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Philadelphia Union or Draw at 1.21 (65% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union or Draw | 65% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| FC Cincinnati or Draw | 62% | 44% | @ 2.12 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.1-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 78% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 48% | @ 1.94 |
| Under 3.5 | 40% | 52% | @ 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
| Under 1.5 | 8% | 14% | @ 6.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 74%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 74% | 66% | @ 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 26% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Philadelphia Union or FC Cincinnati is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati +2 | 88% | 76% | @ 1.24 |
| FC Cincinnati +1.75 | 86% | 70% | @ 1.35 |
| FC Cincinnati +1.5 | 83% | 64% | @ 1.47 |
| FC Cincinnati +1.25 | 78% | 60% | @ 1.59 |
| FC Cincinnati +1 | 72% | 55% | @ 1.71 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.75 | 70% | 83% | 1.14 |
| FC Cincinnati +0.75 | 67% | 49% | @ 1.98 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.5 | 65% | – | 1.21 |
| FC Cincinnati +0.5 | 62% | 44% | @ 2.15 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.25 | 58% | 75% | 1.26 |
| FC Cincinnati +0.25 | 55% | 36% | @ 2.62 |
| Philadelphia Union 0 | 51% | 72% | 1.32 |
| FC Cincinnati 0 | 49% | 28% | @ 3.43 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.25 | 45% | 64% | 1.50 |
| FC Cincinnati -0.25 | 42% | 25% | @ 3.83 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.5 | 38% | 56% | 1.68 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.75 | 33% | 51% | 1.86 |
| FC Cincinnati -0.75 | 30% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Philadelphia Union -1 | 28% | 45% | 2.13 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.25 | 22% | 40% | 2.40 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.5 | 17% | 36% | 2.62 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.75 | 14% | 30% | 3.18 |
| Philadelphia Union -2 | 12% | 24% | 3.90 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?
Our model's main pick is FC Cincinnati Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.35, with a 86% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?
Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 2.1-2.0 scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-2, based on expected goals of 2.15 for Philadelphia Union and 2.01 for FC Cincinnati. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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