Plzen

Thu 22 Oct19:00Upcoming

Levski Sofia

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Plzen vs Levski Sofia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Plzen vs Levski Sofia in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Plzen face Levski Sofia in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Plzen win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.4-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Plzen vs Levski Sofia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.44 – 0.85 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	8.6%	3.7%	1.0%	0.2%
1	14.6%	12.4%	5.3%	1.5%	0.3%
2	10.5%	8.9%	3.8%	1.1%	0.2%
3	5.0%	4.3%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
4	1.8%	1.5%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Plzen winDrawLevski Sofia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Plzen vs Levski Sofia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Plzen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Plzen 53%Draw 28%Levski Sofia 19%

53%28%19%

53%

Plzen Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Plzen

Plzen come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Mlada Boleslav. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Ferencváros.

WFK Jablonec 2-3 PlzenCzech Liga
LFerencváros 2-1 PlzenUEFA Europa League
WPlzen 3-0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
LSlavia Praha 2-1 PlzenCzech Liga
LPlzen 0-3 Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League

Levski Sofia

Levski Sofia come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Spartak Pleven. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Red Bull Salzburg.

WSpartak Pleven 0-2 Levski SofiaCup
DNEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski SofiaUEFA Europa League
WCherno More Varna 0-2 Levski SofiaFirst League
LLevski Sofia 0-1 Red Bull SalzburgUEFA Europa League
LLevski Sofia 2-4 CSKA SofiaSuper Cup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Plzen

V. JemelkaKnee Injury
M. TvrdonOff the roster
A. SojkaHealth problems

Levski Sofia

P. HristovOff the roster
O. KamdemOff the roster
R. KirilovKnee Injury
A. MitkovInjury
M. SangareOff the roster
A. BourasMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Plzen at 53% to win and Levski Sofia at 19%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Plzen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Plzen Win	53%	54%	@ 1.75
Draw	28%	25%	@ 3.80
Levski Sofia Win	19%	21%	@ 4.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Plzen or Draw at 1.18 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Plzen or Draw	79%	79%	@ 1.18
Levski Sofia or Draw	45%	46%	@ 2.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 1.5	67%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 2.5	60%	45%	@ 2.10
Over 2.5	40%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 1.5	33%	22%	@ 4.33
Over 3.5	20%	34%	@ 2.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	56%	44%	@ 2.10
BTTS Yes	44%	56%	@ 1.67

📈 How the market moved

Plzen 54%Draw 25%Levski Sofia 21%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	51%
GradientBoosting	Home	54%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.73 for the home side, 0.97 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Plzen vs Levski Sofia?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Plzen vs Levski Sofia?

Our model makes a Plzen win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.4-0.8 scoreline for Plzen vs Levski Sofia.

What is the predicted score for Plzen vs Levski Sofia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.44 for Plzen and 0.85 for Levski Sofia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Plzen and Levski Sofia play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.