vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.
Portland Timbers face St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC. Recent form: Portland Timbers have 2 wins from their last 5, while St. Louis City have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Portland Timbers won 1, St. Louis City won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Portland Timbers win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 2.0-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.45, the selection our model is most confident in at 71%. On the match result, the model rates a Portland Timbers win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points yes (70%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Portland Timbers and St. Louis City. Wins shown from Portland Timbers’s perspective: Portland Timbers 1 · 2 drawn · St. Louis City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-25 | Portland Timbers | 4 – 4 | St. Louis City | D |
| 2024-06-09 | St. Louis City | 0 – 0 | Portland Timbers | D |
| 2023-04-30 | St. Louis City | 1 – 2 | Portland Timbers | W |
| 2023-03-12 | Portland Timbers | 1 – 2 | St. Louis City | L |
📈 Recent form
Portland Timbers come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to San Diego. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Austin.
- WPortland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- LPortland Timbers 1-2 AustinMajor League Soccer
- DLos Angeles FC 1-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- WPortland Timbers 3-1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- LChicago Fire 2-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
St. Louis City come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Vancouver Whitecaps. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WVancouver Whitecaps 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- DSt. Louis City 3-3 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- WSt. Louis City 2-1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- DSporting Kansas City 1-1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WSan Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. AravenaHip Injury
- B. ByeLeg Injury
- J. CaicedoThigh Injury
- J. MosqueraFoot Injury
- T. MuseWrist Injury
- Celio PompeuKnee Injury
- K. HiebertHip Injury
- C. WallemSuspended (cards)
- P. AultAnkle Injury
- B. McSorleyLacking Match Fitness
- J. OrozcoIllness
- T. OstrakMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Portland Timbers at 41% to win and St. Louis City at 31%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Portland Timbers win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 28% | @ 3.70 | +3.9% |
| Portland Timbers Win | 41% | @ 2.38 | -2.5% |
| St. Louis City Win | 31% | @ 2.60 | -19.6% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Portland Timbers or Draw at 1.47 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers or Draw | 68% | @ 1.47 | +0.1% |
| St. Louis City or Draw | 58% | @ 1.55 | -10.0% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 50% | @ 2.15 | +6.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | @ 1.45 | +2.6% |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | @ 1.12 | -1.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 50% | @ 1.67 | -16.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | @ 2.70 | -21.1% |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | @ 5.75 | -31.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 70%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 70% | @ 1.38 | -3.9% |
| BTTS No | 30% | @ 2.75 | -16.6% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 53% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 41% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 38% |
Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.
Expected goals: 1.41 for the home side, 1.19 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.45, with 71% model confidence.
Who is the favourite for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
Our model makes a Portland Timbers win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.7 scoreline for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City.
What is the predicted score for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.98 for Portland Timbers and 1.68 for St. Louis City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Portland Timbers and St. Louis City play?
Kick-off is Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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