⚽ Major League Soccer
Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.
Result: Portland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis City
Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.44, landed.
Portland Timbers face St. Louis City in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC. Recent form: Portland Timbers have 2 wins from their last 5, while St. Louis City have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Portland Timbers won 1, St. Louis City won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Portland Timbers win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 2.0-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Portland Timbers with a +1 start at odds 1.26, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Portland Timbers win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points yes (70%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Portland Timbers and St. Louis City. Wins shown from Portland Timbers’s perspective: Portland Timbers 1 · 3 drawn · St. Louis City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Portland Timbers | 2 – 2 | St. Louis City | D |
| 2024-08-25 | Portland Timbers | 4 – 4 | St. Louis City | D |
| 2024-06-09 | St. Louis City | 0 – 0 | Portland Timbers | D |
| 2023-04-30 | St. Louis City | 1 – 2 | Portland Timbers | W |
| 2023-03-12 | Portland Timbers | 1 – 2 | St. Louis City | L |
📈 Recent form
Portland Timbers come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 5-4 at home to Minnesota United FC. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Atlanta United FC.
- LPortland Timbers 0-1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- LFC Dallas 2-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- DPortland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WPortland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- LPortland Timbers 1-2 AustinMajor League Soccer
St. Louis City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Colorado Rapids. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WColorado Rapids 0-3 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- WSt. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- DPortland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WVancouver Whitecaps 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. AravenaHip Injury
- B. ByeLeg Injury
- J. CaicedoThigh Injury
- J. MosqueraFoot Injury
- T. MuseWrist Injury
- P. AultAnkle Injury
- Celio PompeuKnee Injury
- K. HiebertHip Injury
- B. McSorleyLacking Match Fitness
- C. WallemSuspended (cards)
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Portland Timbers at 41% to win and St. Louis City at 31%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Portland Timbers win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers Win | 41% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
| St. Louis City Win | 31% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | @ 3.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Portland Timbers or Draw at 1.47 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers or Draw | 68% | 64% | @ 1.47 |
| St. Louis City or Draw | 58% | 61% | @ 1.55 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 65% | @ 1.45 |
| Under 3.5 | 50% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 44% | @ 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | 16% | @ 5.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 70%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 70% | 67% | @ 1.38 |
| BTTS No | 30% | 33% | @ 2.75 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Portland Timbers or St. Louis City is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers +1.75 | 89% | 84% | @ 1.13 |
| Portland Timbers +1.5 | 87% | 79% | @ 1.19 |
| St. Louis City +2 | 86% | 84% | 1.12 |
| St. Louis City +1.75 | 83% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Portland Timbers +1.25 | 82% | 77% | @ 1.22 |
| St. Louis City +1.5 | 80% | 78% | 1.19 |
| Portland Timbers +1 | 78% | 76% | 1.26 |
| St. Louis City +1.25 | 75% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Portland Timbers +0.75 | 73% | 69% | @ 1.40 |
| St. Louis City +1 | 69% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Portland Timbers +0.5 | 68% | 63% | @ 1.51 |
| St. Louis City +0.75 | 64% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Portland Timbers +0.25 | 62% | 57% | @ 1.68 |
| St. Louis City +0.5 | 58% | 60% | 1.57 |
| Portland Timbers 0 | 55% | 51% | @ 1.85 |
| St. Louis City +0.25 | 52% | 56% | 1.71 |
| Portland Timbers -0.25 | 48% | 44% | @ 2.17 |
| St. Louis City 0 | 45% | 49% | 1.96 |
| Portland Timbers -0.5 | 42% | 40% | 2.34 |
| St. Louis City -0.25 | 38% | 43% | 2.23 |
| Portland Timbers -0.75 | 36% | 33% | @ 2.91 |
| St. Louis City -0.5 | 32% | 37% | 2.52 |
| Portland Timbers -1 | 31% | 26% | @ 3.69 |
| St. Louis City -0.75 | 27% | 31% | 3.04 |
| Portland Timbers -1.25 | 25% | 24% | @ 3.94 |
| St. Louis City -1 | 22% | 24% | 3.94 |
| Portland Timbers -1.5 | 20% | 22% | 4.25 |
| St. Louis City -1.25 | 18% | 23% | 4.15 |
| Portland Timbers -1.75 | 17% | 17% | 5.75 |
| Portland Timbers -2 | 14% | 16% | 6.00 |
| St. Louis City -1.5 | 13% | 21% | 4.50 |
| St. Louis City -1.75 | 11% | 16% | 5.90 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
Our model's main pick is Portland Timbers with a +1 start at odds 1.26, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
Our model makes a Portland Timbers win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.7 scoreline for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City.
What is the predicted score for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.98 for Portland Timbers and 1.68 for St. Louis City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Portland Timbers and St. Louis City play?
Kick-off is Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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