⚽ Eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Result: PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam finished 4-1. PSV Eindhoven won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, both teams to score at 1.58, landed.
PSV Eindhoven face Sparta Rotterdam in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: PSV Eindhoven have 4 wins from their last 5, while Sparta Rotterdam have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, PSV Eindhoven won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 79%, projecting a 3.1-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 7.4% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is both teams to score at odds 1.58, with a 64% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 79%. Goals lean over 2.5 (79%), both teams to score points yes (64%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between PSV Eindhoven and Sparta Rotterdam. Wins shown from PSV Eindhoven’s perspective: PSV Eindhoven 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 – 1 | Sparta Rotterdam | W |
| 2026-04-11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 0 – 2 | PSV Eindhoven | W |
| 2025-08-09 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 – 1 | Sparta Rotterdam | W |
| 2025-05-18 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 – 3 | PSV Eindhoven | W |
| 2024-10-05 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 – 1 | Sparta Rotterdam | W |
📈 Recent form
PSV Eindhoven come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at Utrecht. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Twente.
- LTwente 3-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WPSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- DPSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- WAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WUtrecht 1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 15. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Heerenveen.
- LSparta Rotterdam 0-4 HeerenveenEredivisie
- LPSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- DSparta Rotterdam 2-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- LExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- DSparta Rotterdam 3-3 UtrechtEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. Bro HansenInjury
- S. LammersLacking Match Fitness
- S. OuaissaMuscle Injury
- A. PleaInjury
- J. SchoutenKnee Injury
- K. SildilliaInjury
- S. MitoNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices PSV Eindhoven at 79% to win and Sparta Rotterdam at 10%, with the draw at 11%. Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven Win | 79% | 79% | @ 1.18 |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | @ 7.50 |
| Sparta Rotterdam Win | 10% | 8% | @ 11.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.03 (92% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven or Draw | 92% | 92% | @ 1.03 |
| Sparta Rotterdam or Draw | 23% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.1-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 79% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 91% | @ 1.04 |
| Over 2.5 | 79% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 | 40% | 40% | @ 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 22% | @ 4.25 |
| Under 1.5 | 8% | 9% | @ 10.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 59% | @ 1.58 |
| BTTS No | 36% | 41% | @ 2.23 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when PSV Eindhoven or Sparta Rotterdam is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven -0.25 | 81% | 85% | 1.12 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.5 | 77% | 79% | 1.19 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.75 | 72% | 78% | 1.21 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1 | 66% | 76% | 1.24 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.25 | 60% | 70% | 1.34 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +2 | 56% | 44% | @ 2.13 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.5 | 55% | 64% | 1.48 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +1.75 | 50% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.75 | 50% | 60% | 1.57 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +1.5 | 45% | 36% | @ 2.64 |
| PSV Eindhoven -2 | 44% | 56% | 1.71 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +1.25 | 40% | 30% | @ 3.17 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +1 | 34% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +0.75 | 28% | 22% | @ 4.25 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +0.5 | 23% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +0.25 | 19% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model's main pick is both teams to score at odds 1.58, with a 64% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 59%.
Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 79%. It projects an expected 3.1-1.1 scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam.
What is the predicted score for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 3-1, based on expected goals of 3.11 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.10 for Sparta Rotterdam. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do PSV Eindhoven and Sparta Rotterdam play?
Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
VfL Wolfsburgvs
1. FC Heidenheim2. BundesligaSat 17 Oct11:00
Evertonvs
ChelseaPremier LeagueSat 17 Oct11:30
Nantesvs
DunkerqueLigue 2Sat 17 Oct12:00
Espanyolvs
Atletico MadridLa LigaEspanyol Asian Handicap +1.75@ 1.30Sat 17 Oct12:00
Veneziavs
NapoliSerie ASat 17 Oct13:00
Gençlerbirliği S.K.vs
GalatasaraySüper LigSat 17 Oct13:00Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.