⚽ Championship

QPR vs Cardiff Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for QPR vs Cardiff in the Championship. Kick-off Wednesday 02 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

QPR face Cardiff in the Championship, kicking off Wednesday 02 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, QPR won 2, Cardiff won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a QPR win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.6-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for QPR vs Cardiff with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

QPR or Draw @ 1.27

68%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.59 – 1.35 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.3%	7.1%	4.8%	2.2%	0.7%
1	8.4%	11.3%	7.7%	3.4%	1.2%
2	6.7%	9.0%	6.1%	2.7%	0.9%
3	3.5%	4.8%	3.2%	1.5%	0.5%
4	1.4%	1.9%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

QPR winDrawCardiff win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for QPR vs Cardiff is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is QPR or Draw at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 68%. On the match result, the model rates a QPR win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Cardiff or Draw at odds 1.84 (+7.3% model value).

Best value

Cardiff or Draw at odds 1.84, 58% model probability, +7.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

QPR 40%Draw 29%Cardiff 31%

40%29%31%

40%

QPR Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

+7.3%

Best value: Cardiff or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between QPR and Cardiff. Wins shown from QPR’s perspective: QPR 2 · 1 drawn · Cardiff 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-04-05	QPR	0 – 0	Cardiff	D
2024-11-27	Cardiff	0 – 2	QPR	W
2024-01-01	QPR	1 – 2	Cardiff	L
2023-08-12	Cardiff	1 – 2	QPR	W

📈 Recent form

QPR

QPR come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 7-0 at Bromley.

WBlackburn 1-2 QPRChampionship
DQPR 0-0 BoltonChampionship
WPortsmouth 1-3 QPRChampionship
WAFC Wimbledon 2-3 QPRFriendlies Clubs
WBromley 0-7 QPRFriendlies Clubs

Cardiff

Cardiff come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Swindon Town. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Norwich.

DCardiff 2-2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
LCardiff 1-2 NorwichLeague Cup
DDerby 2-2 CardiffChampionship
DCardiff 1-1 WrexhamChampionship
WCardiff 3-2 Swindon TownLeague Cup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

QPR

K. DembeleKnee Injury
J. ObikwuNot in squad
B. KemperAnkle Injury

Cardiff

C. ChambersKnee Injury
W. FishHernia
D. LawlorMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices QPR at 40% to win and Cardiff at 31%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a QPR win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Cardiff Win	31%	@ 3.65	+12.1%
Draw	29%	@ 3.60	+4.3%
QPR Win	40%	@ 1.93	-22.2%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cardiff or Draw at 1.84 (58% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Cardiff or Draw	58%	@ 1.84	+7.3%
QPR or Draw	68%	@ 1.27	-13.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 2.5	56%	@ 1.74	-2.0%
Over 3.5	34%	@ 2.85	-3.3%
Over 1.5	79%	@ 1.21	-4.2%
Under 3.5	66%	@ 1.38	-8.8%
Under 2.5	44%	@ 2.02	-11.8%
Under 1.5	21%	@ 4.00	-16.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	60%	@ 1.64	-1.9%
BTTS No	40%	@ 2.12	-14.8%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	43%
Dixon-Coles	Home	42%
GradientBoosting	Home	39%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.40 for the home side, 1.20 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for QPR vs Cardiff?

Our main pick is QPR or Draw at odds 1.27, with 68% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Cardiff or Draw at 1.84 (+7.3% value).

Who is the favourite for QPR vs Cardiff?

Our model makes a QPR win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline for QPR vs Cardiff.

What is the predicted score for QPR vs Cardiff?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.59 for QPR and 1.35 for Cardiff. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do QPR and Cardiff play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 02 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.