⚽ Brazilian Série A

RB Bragantino vs Gremio Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for RB Bragantino vs Gremio in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

RB Bragantino face Gremio in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, RB Bragantino won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a RB Bragantino win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for RB Bragantino vs Gremio with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.33

77%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.54 – 0.92 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.5%	7.9%	3.6%	1.1%	0.3%
1	13.2%	12.1%	5.6%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.1%	9.3%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	5.2%	4.8%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
4	2.0%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

RB Bragantino winDrawGremio win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for RB Bragantino vs Gremio is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 77%. On the match result, the model rates a RB Bragantino win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.90 (+5.3% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.90, 55% model probability, +5.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

RB Bragantino 49%Draw 27%Gremio 24%

49%27%24%

49%

RB Bragantino Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

+5.3%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between RB Bragantino and Gremio. Wins shown from RB Bragantino’s perspective: RB Bragantino 2 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-09-15	RB Bragantino	2 – 2	Gremio	D
2024-06-01	Gremio	0 – 2	RB Bragantino	W
2023-09-15	RB Bragantino	2 – 0	Gremio	W
2023-05-07	Gremio	3 – 3	RB Bragantino	D

📈 Recent form

RB Bragantino

RB Bragantino come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Atletico-MG.

DAtletico-MG 2-2 RB BragantinoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
DAtletico Paranaense 1-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
LRB Bragantino 0-1 Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LRB Bragantino 0-2 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
DRB Bragantino 0-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A

Gremio

Gremio come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Sao Paulo. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Atletico-MG.

LAtletico-MG 3-0 GremioBrazilian Série A
WGremio 2-1 Sao PauloBrazilian Série A
WGremio 1-0 MirassolCopa Do Brasil
DMirassol 1-1 GremioCopa Do Brasil
LGremio 0-1 BolívarCONMEBOL Sudamericana

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

RB Bragantino

Davi GomesKnee Injury
Fernando SantosIllness
VanderlanKnee Injury

Gremio

Fabian BalbuenaCoach's decision
Joao PedroTransfer negotiations
M. MonsalveCoach's decision
Walter KannemannSuspended (cards)

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices RB Bragantino at 49% to win and Gremio at 24%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a RB Bragantino win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Gremio Win	24%	@ 4.65	+12.1%
Draw	27%	@ 3.60	-3.6%
RB Bragantino Win	49%	@ 1.73	-15.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Gremio or Draw at 2.05 (50% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Gremio or Draw	50%	@ 2.05	+2.5%
RB Bragantino or Draw	75%	@ 1.18	-11.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	55%	@ 1.90	+5.3%
Under 1.5	30%	@ 3.45	+2.0%
Under 3.5	77%	@ 1.33	+1.9%
Over 1.5	70%	@ 1.30	-8.4%
Over 2.5	45%	@ 1.85	-17.5%
Over 3.5	23%	@ 3.25	-24.0%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	52%	@ 1.93	+0.4%
BTTS Yes	48%	@ 1.77	-15.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	53%
Dixon-Coles	Home	48%
GradientBoosting	Home	48%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.60 for the home side, 1.05 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for RB Bragantino vs Gremio?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with 77% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 1.90 (+5.3% value).

Who is the favourite for RB Bragantino vs Gremio?

Our model makes a RB Bragantino win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Gremio.

What is the predicted score for RB Bragantino vs Gremio?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.54 for RB Bragantino and 0.92 for Gremio. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do RB Bragantino and Gremio play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.