Sun 13 Sep0-3Finished

⚽ La Liga

Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid in the La Liga. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Real Sociedad 0-3 Atlético Madrid

Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid finished 0-3. Atlético Madrid won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Atlético Madrid or Draw at 1.34, landed.

Real Sociedad face Atlético Madrid in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Real Sociedad have 2 wins from their last 5, while Atlético Madrid have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Atlético Madrid won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.4-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Atlético Madrid +0.75 @ 1.30

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.39 – 1.60 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.0%	8.0%	6.4%	3.4%	1.4%
1	7.0%	11.2%	8.9%	4.8%	1.9%
2	4.9%	7.8%	6.2%	3.3%	1.3%
3	2.3%	3.6%	2.9%	1.5%	0.6%
4	0.8%	1.3%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Real Sociedad winDrawAtlético Madrid win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Atlético Madrid with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atlético Madrid win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

📊 Key numbers

Real Sociedad 30%Draw 27%Atlético Madrid 44%

30%27%44%

44%

Atlético Madrid Win

58%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Real Sociedad and Atlético Madrid. Wins shown from Real Sociedad’s perspective: 2 drawn · Atlético Madrid 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-13	Real Sociedad	0 – 3	Atlético Madrid	L
2026-03-07	Atlético Madrid	3 – 2	Real Sociedad	L
2026-01-04	Real Sociedad	1 – 1	Atlético Madrid	D
2025-05-10	Atlético Madrid	4 – 0	Real Sociedad	L
2024-10-06	Real Sociedad	1 – 1	Atlético Madrid	D

📈 Recent form

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Valencia. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Bournemouth.

WValencia 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
LReal Sociedad 1-2 BournemouthUEFA Europa League
LReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
WElche 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
DReal Sociedad 0-0 Celta VigoLa Liga

Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Liverpool.

WAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real MadridLa Liga
WAtlético Madrid 4-0 OsasunaLa Liga
WReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
LLiverpool 2-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
LAthletic Club 3-0 Atlético MadridLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Real Sociedad

J. MartinSuspended (red card)
A. OdriozolaKnee Injury
I. ZubeldiaInjury

Atlético Madrid

J. AlvarezMuscle Injury
P. BarriosMuscle Injury
A. SorlothMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Real Sociedad at 30% to win and Atlético Madrid at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Madrid Win	44%	42%	@ 2.25
Real Sociedad Win	30%	32%	@ 2.95
Draw	27%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atlético Madrid or Draw at 1.34 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Madrid or Draw	70%	68%	@ 1.34
Real Sociedad or Draw	56%	58%	@ 1.56

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	80%	79%	@ 1.19
Under 3.5	65%	64%	@ 1.43
Over 2.5	58%	56%	@ 1.63
Under 2.5	42%	44%	@ 2.10
Over 3.5	35%	36%	@ 2.55
Under 1.5	20%	21%	@ 4.35

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	60%	60%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	40%	40%	@ 2.30

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Real Sociedad or Atlético Madrid is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Madrid +1.5	88%	83%	@ 1.14
Atlético Madrid +1.25	83%	83%	1.15
Real Sociedad +1.75	82%	83%	1.15
Atlético Madrid +1	79%	80%	1.19
Real Sociedad +1.5	79%	77%	1.22
Atlético Madrid +0.75	74%	73%	1.30
Real Sociedad +1.25	73%	76%	1.26
Atlético Madrid +0.5	70%	67%	1.41
Real Sociedad +1	67%	73%	1.30
Atlético Madrid +0.25	63%	63%	1.52
Real Sociedad +0.75	62%	65%	1.47
Atlético Madrid 0	57%	56%	1.71
Real Sociedad +0.5	56%	59%	1.64
Atlético Madrid -0.25	50%	47%	@ 2.04
Real Sociedad +0.25	50%	53%	1.83
Atlético Madrid -0.5	44%	41%	@ 2.31
Real Sociedad 0	43%	44%	2.18
Atlético Madrid -0.75	38%	35%	@ 2.75
Real Sociedad -0.25	37%	37%	2.56
Atlético Madrid -1	33%	27%	@ 3.55
Real Sociedad -0.5	30%	33%	2.92
Atlético Madrid -1.25	27%	24%	@ 3.94
Real Sociedad -0.75	26%	27%	3.59
Atlético Madrid -1.5	21%	23%	4.15
Real Sociedad -1	21%	20%	@ 4.85
Atlético Madrid -1.75	18%	17%	5.50
Real Sociedad -1.25	17%	17%	5.50
Real Sociedad -1.5	12%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

Real Sociedad 32%Draw 27%Atlético Madrid 41%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?

Our model's main pick is Atlético Madrid with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?

Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid.

What is the predicted score for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.39 for Real Sociedad and 1.60 for Atlético Madrid. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Real Sociedad and Atlético Madrid play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.