⚽ Ligue 1
Rennes vs Marseille Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Rennes vs Marseille in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Rennes 1-0 Marseille
Rennes vs Marseille finished 1-0. Rennes won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, Rennes or Draw at 1.34, landed.
Rennes face Marseille in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Rennes have 2 wins from their last 5, while Marseille have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Rennes won 2, Marseille won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Rennes win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.8-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Rennes vs Marseille with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Rennes vs Marseille comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Marseille with a +1.5 start at odds 1.27, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Rennes win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (66%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Rennes and Marseille. Wins shown from Rennes’s perspective: Rennes 2 · Marseille 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Rennes | 1 – 0 | Marseille | W |
| 2026-05-17 | Marseille | 3 – 1 | Rennes | L |
| 2025-08-15 | Rennes | 1 – 0 | Marseille | W |
| 2025-05-17 | Marseille | 4 – 2 | Rennes | L |
| 2025-01-11 | Rennes | 1 – 2 | Marseille | L |
📈 Recent form
Rennes come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Marseille. Their only defeat in that run was 0-4 at Lyon.
- LLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
- DSturm Graz 0-0 RennesUEFA Europa League
- WRennes 1-0 MarseilleLigue 1
- WAngers 1-2 RennesLigue 1
- WRennes 3-2 Le MansLigue 1
Marseille come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Paris Saint-Germain.
- LMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
- LBeşiktaş 4-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
- LRennes 1-0 MarseilleLigue 1
- LMarseille 2-3 Paris FCLigue 1
- LMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- D. CisseNot in squad
- A. NordinNot in squad
- G. OliveiraNot in squad
- G. KondogbiaInjury
- A. Koum MbondoNot in squad
- T. NnadiInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Rennes at 42% to win and Marseille at 32%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Rennes win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes Win | 42% | 44% | @ 2.12 |
| Marseille Win | 32% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | @ 3.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rennes or Draw at 1.36 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes or Draw | 68% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Marseille or Draw | 58% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 82% | @ 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 62% | @ 1.52 |
| Under 3.5 | 56% | 59% | @ 1.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
| Under 1.5 | 15% | 18% | @ 5.30 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 64% | @ 1.45 |
| BTTS No | 34% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Rennes or Marseille is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes +1.75 | 89% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Rennes +1.5 | 87% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Marseille +2 | 86% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Marseille +1.75 | 83% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Rennes +1.25 | 82% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Marseille +1.5 | 80% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Rennes +1 | 77% | – | 1.19 |
| Marseille +1.25 | 75% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Rennes +0.75 | 73% | 76% | 1.26 |
| Marseille +1 | 69% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Rennes +0.5 | 68% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Marseille +0.75 | 64% | 60% | @ 1.58 |
| Rennes +0.25 | 62% | 66% | 1.46 |
| Marseille +0.5 | 58% | 54% | @ 1.76 |
| Rennes 0 | 55% | 60% | 1.58 |
| Marseille +0.25 | 52% | 47% | @ 2.04 |
| Rennes -0.25 | 48% | 53% | 1.83 |
| Marseille 0 | 45% | 40% | @ 2.42 |
| Rennes -0.5 | 42% | 46% | 2.09 |
| Marseille -0.25 | 38% | 34% | @ 2.78 |
| Rennes -0.75 | 36% | 40% | 2.40 |
| Marseille -0.5 | 32% | 30% | @ 3.17 |
| Rennes -1 | 31% | 32% | 3.01 |
| Marseille -0.75 | 27% | 24% | @ 3.92 |
| Rennes -1.25 | 25% | 28% | 3.35 |
| Rennes -1.5 | 20% | 26% | 3.55 |
| Marseille -1.25 | 18% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Rennes -1.75 | 17% | 21% | 4.50 |
| Rennes -2 | 14% | 14% | 6.80 |
| Marseille -1.5 | 13% | 15% | 6.25 |
| Marseille -1.75 | 11% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Rennes vs Marseille?
Our model's main pick is Marseille with a +1.5 start at odds 1.27, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Rennes vs Marseille?
Our model makes a Rennes win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.6 scoreline for Rennes vs Marseille.
What is the predicted score for Rennes vs Marseille?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.75 for Rennes and 1.64 for Marseille. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Rennes and Marseille play?
Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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