Riga
Vardar Skopje⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League
Riga vs Vardar Skopje Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Riga vs Vardar Skopje in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Tuesday 28 July 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Result: Riga 1-2 Vardar Skopje
Riga vs Vardar Skopje finished 1-2. Vardar Skopje won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Vardar Skopje Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.47, landed.
Riga face Vardar Skopje in the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League tips, kicking off Tuesday 28 July 2026, 17:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Riga won 1, Vardar Skopje won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Riga win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.6-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Riga vs Vardar Skopje with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 14.5% | 11.9% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Riga vs Vardar Skopje comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Vardar Skopje Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.47, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Riga win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (56%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Riga and Vardar Skopje. Wins shown from Riga’s perspective: Riga 1 · Vardar Skopje 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Riga | 1 – 2 | Vardar Skopje | L |
| 2026-07-22 | Vardar Skopje | 2 – 3 | Riga | W |
📈 Recent form
Riga come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at FS Jelgava. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WFS Jelgava 0-1 RigaVirsliga
- WSuper Nova 0-1 RigaVirsliga
- DRiga 2-2 AudaVirsliga
- DRiga 1-1 BFC DaugavpilsVirsliga
- WRīgas FS 2-3 RigaCup
Vardar Skopje come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at Ovce Pole. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Shkendija.
- WVardar Skopje 2-0 Shkëndija HaraçinëFirst League
- DBashkimi Kumanovo 3-3 Vardar SkopjeFirst League
- WOvce Pole 0-5 Vardar SkopjeCup
- WVardar Skopje 4-1 SileksFirst League
- LVardar Skopje 0-2 ShkendijaFirst League
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Riga at 41% to win and Vardar Skopje at 25%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Riga win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riga Win | 41% | 71% | @ 1.30 |
| Draw | 33% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Vardar Skopje Win | 25% | 12% | @ 8.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Riga or Draw at 1.04 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riga or Draw | 74% | 88% | @ 1.04 |
| Vardar Skopje or Draw | 51% | 29% | @ 3.05 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78% | 58% | @ 1.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 80% | @ 1.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 38% | @ 2.43 |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 62% | @ 1.48 |
| Under 1.5 | 32% | 20% | @ 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 56% | 49% | @ 1.89 |
| BTTS Yes | 44% | 51% | @ 1.78 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Riga or Vardar Skopje is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vardar Skopje +2 | 82% | 64% | @ 1.47 |
| Vardar Skopje +1.75 | 78% | 57% | @ 1.66 |
| Vardar Skopje +1.5 | 74% | 51% | @ 1.85 |
| Riga +0.5 | 74% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Vardar Skopje +1.25 | 68% | 45% | @ 2.09 |
| Riga +0.25 | 68% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Vardar Skopje +1 | 63% | 38% | @ 2.43 |
| Riga 0 | 62% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Vardar Skopje +0.75 | 57% | 32% | @ 2.88 |
| Riga -0.25 | 55% | 76% | 1.24 |
| Vardar Skopje +0.5 | 51% | 29% | @ 3.18 |
| Riga -0.5 | 49% | 71% | 1.31 |
| Vardar Skopje +0.25 | 45% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
| Riga -0.75 | 43% | 68% | 1.39 |
| Vardar Skopje 0 | 38% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Riga -1 | 37% | 62% | 1.51 |
| Vardar Skopje -0.25 | 32% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Riga -1.25 | 32% | 55% | 1.71 |
| Vardar Skopje -0.5 | 26% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Riga -1.5 | 26% | 49% | 1.89 |
| Riga -1.75 | 22% | 43% | 2.17 |
| Riga -2 | 18% | 36% | 2.58 |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Riga vs Vardar Skopje?
Our model's main pick is Vardar Skopje Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.47, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.
Who is the favourite for Riga vs Vardar Skopje?
Our model makes a Riga win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.6-0.8 scoreline for Riga vs Vardar Skopje.
What is the predicted score for Riga vs Vardar Skopje?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.55 for Riga and 0.82 for Vardar Skopje. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Riga and Vardar Skopje play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 28 July 2026, 17:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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