⚽ Major League Soccer
San Diego vs Philadelphia Union Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Monday 14 September 2026, 01:00 UTC.
Result: San Diego 0-5 Philadelphia Union
San Diego vs Philadelphia Union finished 0-5. Philadelphia Union won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.42, landed.
San Diego face Philadelphia Union in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Monday 14 September 2026, 01:00 UTC. Recent form: San Diego have 3 wins from their last 5, while Philadelphia Union have 3 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 2.0-2.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% |
| 2 | 2.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.41, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Philadelphia Union win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (82%), both teams to score points yes (79%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
San Diego come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Los Angeles Galaxy. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at home to Philadelphia Union.
- DInter Miami 2-2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- LSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- LSan Diego 2-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- LOrlando City SC 1-0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 3-1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
Philadelphia Union come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at San Diego. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Gabriel PiraniInjury
- M. IngvartsenInjury
- A. MightenLower-Body Injury
- dos Santos CJSuspended (red card)
- P. NdingaHamstring Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices San Diego at 36% to win and Philadelphia Union at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union Win | 38% | 40% | @ 2.35 |
| San Diego Win | 36% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Philadelphia Union or Draw at 1.47 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union or Draw | 64% | 64% | @ 1.47 |
| San Diego or Draw | 62% | 60% | @ 1.56 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-2.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 82% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 84% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 82% | 67% | @ 1.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| Under 3.5 | 35% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 33% | @ 2.80 |
| Under 1.5 | 6% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 79%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 79% | 68% | @ 1.37 |
| BTTS No | 21% | 32% | @ 2.85 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when San Diego or Philadelphia Union is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union +1.75 | 87% | 85% | 1.12 |
| San Diego +1.75 | 86% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Philadelphia Union +1.5 | 84% | 81% | 1.17 |
| San Diego +1.5 | 83% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Philadelphia Union +1.25 | 79% | 79% | 1.19 |
| San Diego +1.25 | 78% | 76% | 1.26 |
| Philadelphia Union +1 | 74% | 78% | 1.23 |
| San Diego +1 | 73% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.75 | 69% | 71% | 1.34 |
| San Diego +0.75 | 68% | 66% | 1.46 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.5 | 64% | 65% | 1.46 |
| San Diego +0.5 | 62% | 59% | @ 1.61 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.25 | 58% | 61% | 1.58 |
| San Diego +0.25 | 56% | 54% | 1.78 |
| Philadelphia Union 0 | 51% | 54% | 1.78 |
| San Diego 0 | 49% | 46% | @ 2.08 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.25 | 44% | 46% | 2.08 |
| San Diego -0.25 | 42% | 39% | @ 2.42 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.5 | 38% | 41% | 2.36 |
| San Diego -0.5 | 36% | 35% | 2.76 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.75 | 33% | 34% | 2.77 |
| San Diego -0.75 | 31% | 29% | @ 3.27 |
| Philadelphia Union -1 | 27% | 27% | 3.54 |
| San Diego -1 | 26% | 22% | @ 4.34 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.25 | 22% | 24% | 3.92 |
| San Diego -1.25 | 21% | 21% | 4.50 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.5 | 17% | 22% | 4.25 |
| San Diego -1.5 | 16% | 19% | 5.00 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.75 | 14% | 17% | 5.50 |
| San Diego -1.75 | 13% | 15% | 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?
Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.41, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 67%.
Who is the favourite for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?
Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 2.0-2.4 scoreline for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union.
What is the predicted score for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-2, based on expected goals of 2.04 for San Diego and 2.41 for Philadelphia Union. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do San Diego and Philadelphia Union play?
Kick-off is Monday 14 September 2026, 01:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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