⚽ Major League Soccer

San Diego vs Philadelphia Union Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Monday 14 September 2026, 01:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

San Diego face Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Monday 14 September 2026, 01:00 UTC. Recent form: San Diego have 3 wins from their last 5, while Philadelphia Union have 3 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a San Diego win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 2.3-2.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.41

83%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.31 – 2.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.0%	2.4%	2.6%	2.0%	1.1%
1	2.4%	5.4%	6.1%	4.6%	2.6%
2	2.8%	6.3%	7.1%	5.3%	3.0%
3	2.1%	4.8%	5.4%	4.1%	2.3%
4	1.2%	2.8%	3.1%	2.4%	1.3%

Projected score: 2-2

San Diego winDrawPhiladelphia Union win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.41, the selection our model is most confident in at 83%. On the match result, the model rates a San Diego win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (83%), both teams to score points yes (81%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 3.5 goals at odds 2.05 (+36.8% model value).

Best value

Over 3.5 at odds 2.05, 67% model probability, +36.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

San Diego 39%Draw 26%Philadelphia Union 35%

39%26%35%

39%

San Diego Win

83%

Over 2.5 goals

81%

BTTS yes

+36.8%

Best value: Over 3.5

📈 Recent form

San Diego

San Diego come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Colorado Rapids. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Orlando City SC.

LOrlando City SC 1-0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
WSan Diego 3-1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
WSan Diego 3-0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
LPortland Timbers 3-1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
WLos Angeles FC 0-1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer

Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to FC Cincinnati. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
WNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
DAustin 1-1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
DPhiladelphia Union 2-2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices San Diego at 39% to win and Philadelphia Union at 35%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a San Diego win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
San Diego Win	39%	@ 2.60	+2.1%
Draw	26%	@ 3.80	-2.1%
Philadelphia Union Win	35%	@ 2.35	-17.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is San Diego or Draw at 1.56 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
San Diego or Draw	65%	@ 1.56	+1.9%
Philadelphia Union or Draw	61%	@ 1.47	-10.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.3-2.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 83% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	67%	@ 2.05	+36.8%
Over 2.5	83%	@ 1.41	+17.4%
Over 1.5	94%	@ 1.11	+4.5%
Under 3.5	33%	@ 1.73	-42.5%
Under 2.5	17%	@ 2.80	-53.2%
Under 1.5	6%	@ 6.00	-64.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 81%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	81%	@ 1.37	+10.4%
BTTS No	19%	@ 2.85	-44.6%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.41, with 83% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 3.5 goals at 2.05 (+36.8% value).

Who is the favourite for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?

Our model makes a San Diego win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 2.3-2.2 scoreline for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union.

What is the predicted score for San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-2, based on expected goals of 2.31 for San Diego and 2.25 for Philadelphia Union. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do San Diego and Philadelphia Union play?

Kick-off is Monday 14 September 2026, 01:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.