⚽ Major League Soccer
San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.
Result: San Diego 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes
San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes finished 2-3. San Jose Earthquakes won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.38, landed.
San Diego face San Jose Earthquakes in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC. Recent form: San Diego have 3 wins from their last 5, while San Jose Earthquakes have no wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a San Diego win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 2.6-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 2.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 3.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 83% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a San Diego win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (83%), both teams to score points yes (79%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes. Wins shown from San Diego’s perspective: San Jose Earthquakes 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | San Diego | 2 – 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | L |
| 2026-04-05 | San Jose Earthquakes | 3 – 0 | San Diego | L |
📈 Recent form
San Diego come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Los Angeles Galaxy. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at home to Philadelphia Union.
- DInter Miami 2-2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- LSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- LSan Diego 2-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- LOrlando City SC 1-0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 3-1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Houston Dynamo.
- DSan Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- WSan Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 2-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DAustin 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DHouston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. IngvartsenInjury
- P. SisniegaBack Injury
- N. AdimabuaLower-Body Injury
- E. EdwardsLower-Body Injury
- D. JohnsonLower-Body Injury
- D. JonesAchilles Tendon Injury
- P. MarieInjury
- T. WernerInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices San Diego at 48% to win and San Jose Earthquakes at 27%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a San Diego win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Win | 48% | 54% | @ 1.74 |
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 27% | 24% | @ 3.95 |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is San Diego or Draw at 1.23 (73% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego or Draw | 73% | 76% | @ 1.23 |
| San Jose Earthquakes or Draw | 52% | 46% | @ 2.04 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.6-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 83% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 48% | @ 1.97 |
| Under 3.5 | 33% | 52% | @ 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 32% | @ 2.95 |
| Under 1.5 | 6% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 79%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 79% | 66% | @ 1.41 |
| BTTS No | 21% | 34% | @ 2.70 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when San Diego or San Jose Earthquakes is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego +1.25 | 86% | 86% | 1.10 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +2 | 83% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| San Diego +1 | 81% | 86% | 1.11 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.75 | 79% | 72% | @ 1.32 |
| San Diego +0.75 | 77% | 82% | 1.16 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.5 | 76% | 66% | @ 1.42 |
| San Diego +0.5 | 73% | 76% | 1.23 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.25 | 70% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| San Diego +0.25 | 67% | 73% | 1.29 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1 | 64% | 57% | @ 1.66 |
| San Diego 0 | 60% | 70% | 1.37 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.75 | 58% | 51% | @ 1.90 |
| San Diego -0.25 | 54% | 61% | 1.55 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 | 52% | 45% | @ 2.08 |
| San Diego -0.5 | 48% | 55% | 1.72 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.25 | 46% | 39% | @ 2.46 |
| San Diego -0.75 | 42% | 49% | 1.96 |
| San Jose Earthquakes 0 | 40% | 30% | @ 3.13 |
| San Diego -1 | 36% | 43% | 2.22 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.25 | 33% | 27% | @ 3.58 |
| San Diego -1.25 | 30% | 38% | 2.52 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.5 | 27% | 24% | @ 3.80 |
| San Diego -1.5 | 24% | 34% | 2.77 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.75 | 23% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| San Diego -1.75 | 21% | 28% | 3.42 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1 | 19% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| San Diego -2 | 17% | 22% | 4.25 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.25 | 14% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 83% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.
Who is the favourite for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model makes a San Diego win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 2.6-2.0 scoreline for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes.
What is the predicted score for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.59 for San Diego and 1.96 for San Jose Earthquakes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes play?
Kick-off is Thursday 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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