vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
San Jose Earthquakes face Minnesota United FC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 02:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 1, Minnesota United FC won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Minnesota United FC win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.7-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Minnesota United FC or Draw at odds 1.80, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates a Minnesota United FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (67%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC. Wins shown from San Jose Earthquakes’s perspective: San Jose Earthquakes 1 · 2 drawn · Minnesota United FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | San Jose Earthquakes | 4 – 2 | Minnesota United FC | W |
| 2024-09-01 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 2 | Minnesota United FC | L |
| 2024-07-21 | Minnesota United FC | 2 – 0 | San Jose Earthquakes | L |
| 2023-10-01 | Minnesota United FC | 1 – 1 | San Jose Earthquakes | D |
| 2023-09-03 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 1 | Minnesota United FC | D |
📈 Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Portland Timbers. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Los Angeles Galaxy.
- LLos Angeles Galaxy 1-0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- LSan Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- LFC Cincinnati 4-2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- WPortland Timbers 1-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- LColorado Rapids 2-0 San Jose EarthquakesUS Open Cup
Minnesota United FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Atlante FC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Atlanta United FC.
- LMinnesota United FC 1-2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- DReal Salt Lake 1-1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- WMinnesota United FC 3-1 Atlante FCLeagues Cup
- DMinnesota United FC 1-1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- LNew England Revolution 2-1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. AdimabuaLower-Body Injury
- D. JonesAchilles Tendon Injury
- E. EdwardsLower-Body Injury
- N. RomeroLower-Body Injury
- P. StroudMuscle Injury
- N. TriantisLower-Body Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices San Jose Earthquakes at 33% to win and Minnesota United FC at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Minnesota United FC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC Win | 41% | @ 3.30 | +34.9% |
| Draw | 26% | @ 3.90 | +0.3% |
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 33% | @ 1.97 | -34.2% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Minnesota United FC or Draw at 1.80 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC or Draw | 67% | @ 1.80 | +20.5% |
| San Jose Earthquakes or Draw | 59% | @ 1.30 | -22.8% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 44% | @ 2.25 | -0.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | @ 1.50 | -0.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | @ 1.15 | -1.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 56% | @ 1.62 | -9.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | @ 2.55 | -13.9% |
| Under 1.5 | 15% | @ 5.25 | -23.5% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 67%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 67% | @ 1.45 | -3.4% |
| BTTS No | 33% | @ 2.55 | -15.0% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Away | 40% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 40% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 42% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.22 for the home side, 1.38 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
Our main pick is Minnesota United FC or Draw at odds 1.80, with 67% model confidence.
Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
Our model makes a Minnesota United FC win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.7 scoreline for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC.
What is the predicted score for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.68 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.73 for Minnesota United FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.