⚽ Brazilian Série A
Santos vs Chapecoense Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santos vs Chapecoense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 25 July 2026, 21:30 UTC.
Result: Santos 2-2 Chapecoense
Santos vs Chapecoense finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Chapecoense Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.37, landed.
Santos face Chapecoense in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Saturday 25 July 2026, 21:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Santos win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 2.2-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santos vs Chapecoense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 10.4% | 9.8% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 7.8% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Santos vs Chapecoense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Chapecoense Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.37, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Santos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (53%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Santos come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Atlético Mineiro. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-4 at Atlético Mineiro.
- WRemo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
- LAtlético Mineiro 4-2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- WSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- WSantos 2-0 Atlético MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- WInternacional 2-3 SantosBrazilian Série A
Chapecoense come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Internacional.
- DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- LChapecoense 1-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
- WCorinthians 1-2 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- LGrêmio 3-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- WChapecoense 1-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Gustavo HenriqueHamstring Injury
- Vinicius LiraKnee Injury
- AndersonInjury
- Joao PauloHealth problems
- Mauricio GarcezThigh Injury
- Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
- Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury
- Victor CaetanoCalf Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Santos at 53% to win and Chapecoense at 18%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Santos win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Win | 53% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | @ 4.60 |
| Chapecoense Win | 18% | 12% | @ 8.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Santos or Draw at 1.08 (76% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos or Draw | 76% | 88% | @ 1.08 |
| Chapecoense or Draw | 48% | 32% | @ 2.80 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 3.5 | 61% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 33% | @ 2.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 45% | @ 2.08 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 22% | @ 4.20 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 48% | @ 1.93 |
| BTTS No | 47% | 52% | @ 1.78 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Santos or Chapecoense is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense +2 | 79% | 69% | @ 1.37 |
| Santos +0.5 | 76% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Chapecoense +1.75 | 75% | 61% | @ 1.54 |
| Chapecoense +1.5 | 71% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| Santos +0.25 | 70% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Chapecoense +1.25 | 65% | 49% | @ 1.96 |
| Santos 0 | 64% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Chapecoense +1 | 59% | 41% | @ 2.30 |
| Santos -0.25 | 58% | – | 1.26 |
| Chapecoense +0.75 | 54% | 36% | @ 2.64 |
| Santos -0.5 | 52% | – | 1.42 |
| Santos -0.75 | 46% | 64% | 1.49 |
| Santos -1 | 41% | 59% | 1.62 |
| Chapecoense 0 | 36% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| Santos -1.25 | 35% | 51% | 1.90 |
| Chapecoense -0.25 | 30% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Santos -1.5 | 29% | 45% | 2.11 |
| Santos -1.75 | 25% | 39% | 2.46 |
| Chapecoense -0.5 | 24% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Santos -2 | 21% | 31% | 3.12 |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santos vs Chapecoense?
Our model's main pick is Chapecoense Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.37, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Santos vs Chapecoense?
Our model makes a Santos win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 2.2-0.9 scoreline for Santos vs Chapecoense.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Chapecoense?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.23 for Santos and 0.94 for Chapecoense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Santos and Chapecoense play?
Kick-off is Saturday 25 July 2026, 21:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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