⚽ Brazilian Série A
Santos vs Cruzeiro Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santos vs Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Result: Santos 2-1 Cruzeiro
Santos vs Cruzeiro finished 2-1. Santos won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.27, landed.
Santos face Cruzeiro in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:00 UTC. Recent form: Santos have 3 wins from their last 5, while Cruzeiro have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Santos won 1, Cruzeiro won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Santos win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.4-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santos vs Cruzeiro with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Santos vs Cruzeiro comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Santos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (59%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Santos and Cruzeiro. Wins shown from Santos’s perspective: Santos 1 · Cruzeiro 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Santos | 2 – 1 | Cruzeiro | W |
| 2023-09-14 | Santos | 0 – 3 | Cruzeiro | L |
| 2023-05-06 | Cruzeiro | 2 – 1 | Santos | L |
📈 Recent form
Santos come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Atlético Mineiro. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-4 at Atlético Mineiro.
- WRemo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
- LAtlético Mineiro 4-2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- WSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- WSantos 2-0 Atlético MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- WInternacional 2-3 SantosBrazilian Série A
Cruzeiro come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Santos.
- WVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- LSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- WCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
- LVasco da Gama 3-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. BarrealThigh Injury
- G. EscobarSuspended (cards)
- Gabriel BarbosaSuspended (cards)
- Lucas VerissimoAnkle Injury
- NeymarThigh Injury
- Vinicius LiraKnee Injury
- Gabriel PecBroken Leg
- Jonathan JesusInjury
- L. SinisterraMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Santos at 39% to win and Cruzeiro at 36%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Santos win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Win | 39% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Cruzeiro Win | 36% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | @ 3.30 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Santos or Draw at 1.47 (65% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos or Draw | 65% | 64% | @ 1.47 |
| Cruzeiro or Draw | 62% | 64% | @ 1.46 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Under 3.5 | 66% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 49% | @ 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 51% | @ 1.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 29% | @ 3.30 |
| Under 1.5 | 21% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 55% | @ 1.68 |
| BTTS No | 41% | 45% | @ 2.06 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Santos or Cruzeiro is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos +1.75 | 87% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Cruzeiro +1.75 | 85% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Santos +1.5 | 85% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Cruzeiro +1.5 | 83% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Santos +1.25 | 80% | 79% | 1.21 |
| Cruzeiro +1.25 | 77% | – | 1.20 |
| Santos +1 | 75% | – | 1.24 |
| Cruzeiro +1 | 72% | 80% | 1.19 |
| Santos +0.75 | 70% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Cruzeiro +0.75 | 67% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Santos +0.5 | 65% | 62% | 1.54 |
| Cruzeiro +0.5 | 62% | 66% | 1.45 |
| Santos +0.25 | 58% | 56% | 1.71 |
| Cruzeiro +0.25 | 55% | 60% | 1.57 |
| Santos 0 | 52% | 47% | @ 2.04 |
| Cruzeiro 0 | 48% | 53% | 1.83 |
| Santos -0.25 | 45% | 40% | @ 2.41 |
| Cruzeiro -0.25 | 42% | 44% | 2.15 |
| Santos -0.5 | 38% | 34% | @ 2.79 |
| Cruzeiro -0.5 | 35% | 38% | 2.49 |
| Santos -0.75 | 33% | 27% | @ 3.47 |
| Cruzeiro -0.75 | 30% | 31% | 3.08 |
| Santos -1 | 28% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Cruzeiro -1.25 | 20% | 21% | 4.55 |
| Santos -1.5 | 17% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Cruzeiro -1.5 | 15% | 20% | 4.80 |
| Santos -1.75 | 15% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Cruzeiro -1.75 | 13% | 15% | 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santos vs Cruzeiro?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Santos vs Cruzeiro?
Our model makes a Santos win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline for Santos vs Cruzeiro.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Cruzeiro?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.45 for Santos and 1.49 for Cruzeiro. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Santos and Cruzeiro play?
Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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