vs
⚽ Bundesliga
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Result: SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC Freiburg
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg finished 0-1. SC Freiburg won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, SC Paderborn 07 Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at 1.30, landed.
SC Paderborn 07 face SC Freiburg in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.8-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is SC Paderborn 07 Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 86%. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points yes (58%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is SC Paderborn 07 0 at odds 2.69 (+44.5% model value).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
SC Paderborn 07 come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Phönix Lübeck. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to SC Freiburg.
- LSC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- DFSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- WPhönix Lübeck 2-4 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
- DWerder Bremen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
- WVfL Osnabrück 0-2 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
SC Freiburg come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at Fortuna Düsseldorf. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- WSC Freiburg 4-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- WSC Freiburg 4-1 MotherwellUEFA Europa Conference
- WFortuna Düsseldorf 1-5 SC FreiburgDFB Pokal
- WMotherwell 1-3 SC FreiburgUEFA Europa Conference
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. Awortwie-GrantKnee Injury
- L. EickelBack Injury
- T. GayretKnee Injury
- F. GotzeInjury
- S. MichelMuscle Injury
- P. OsterhageMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices SC Paderborn 07 at 34% to win and SC Freiburg at 26%, with the draw at 41%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 41% | @ 3.65 | +48.2% |
| SC Paderborn 07 Win | 34% | @ 3.35 | +12.3% |
| SC Freiburg Win | 26% | @ 2.00 | -48.2% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is SC Paderborn 07 or Draw at 1.77 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 or Draw | 67% | @ 1.77 | +18.5% |
| SC Freiburg or Draw | 59% | @ 1.30 | -22.8% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 43% | @ 2.28 | -2.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 65% | @ 1.49 | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | @ 1.18 | -5.9% |
| Under 1.5 | 20% | @ 4.60 | -7.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | @ 1.61 | -7.9% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | @ 2.55 | -11.2% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 42% | @ 2.38 | +0.1% |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | @ 1.52 | -11.9% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when SC Paderborn 07 or SC Freiburg is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 -1 | 30% | @ 6.60 | +96.7% |
| SC Paderborn 07 -1.25 | 24% | @ 7.00 | +70.7% |
| SC Paderborn 07 -0.75 | 35% | @ 4.37 | +53.8% |
| SC Paderborn 07 -0.25 | 47% | @ 3.11 | +46.9% |
| SC Paderborn 07 0 | 54% | @ 2.69 | +44.5% |
| SC Paderborn 07 -0.5 | 41% | @ 3.50 | +42.3% |
| SC Paderborn 07 -1.5 | 19% | @ 7.00 | +32.7% |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.25 | 60% | @ 2.12 | +28.3% |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.5 | 67% | @ 1.86 | +24.9% |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.75 | 72% | @ 1.64 | +17.7% |
| SC Paderborn 07 +1.5 | 86% | @ 1.30 | +12.3% |
| SC Paderborn 07 +1.25 | 81% | @ 1.35 | +10.2% |
| SC Paderborn 07 +1 | 76% | @ 1.44 | +9.8% |
| SC Paderborn 07 +1.75 | 88% | @ 1.21 | +7.0% |
| SC Paderborn 07 +2 | 91% | @ 1.12 | +1.7% |
| SC Freiburg +1.5 | 81% | 1.10 | -10.9% |
| SC Freiburg +1.25 | 76% | 1.10 | -16.8% |
| SC Freiburg +0.75 | 65% | 1.22 | -21.0% |
| SC Freiburg +0.5 | 59% | 1.31 | -22.0% |
| SC Freiburg +1 | 70% | 1.11 | -22.1% |
| SC Freiburg +0.25 | 53% | 1.38 | -27.4% |
| SC Freiburg -0.25 | 40% | 1.74 | -31.3% |
| SC Freiburg 0 | 46% | 1.48 | -31.6% |
| SC Freiburg -0.5 | 33% | 2.02 | -33.4% |
| SC Freiburg -1 | 24% | 2.83 | -33.6% |
| SC Freiburg -0.75 | 28% | 2.29 | -35.1% |
| SC Freiburg -1.25 | 19% | 3.19 | -40.3% |
| SC Freiburg -2 | 9% | 6.25 | -42.2% |
| SC Freiburg -1.5 | 14% | 3.57 | -50.3% |
| SC Freiburg -1.75 | 12% | 4.25 | -50.8% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
Our main pick is SC Paderborn 07 Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, with 86% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is SC Paderborn 07 0 at 2.69 (+44.5% value).
Who is the favourite for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.2 scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg.
What is the predicted score for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.80 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.18 for SC Freiburg. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do SC Paderborn 07 and SC Freiburg play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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