⚽ La Liga

Sevilla vs Valencia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sevilla vs Valencia in the La Liga. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sevilla face Valencia in the La Liga, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Sevilla have 2 wins from their last 3, while Valencia have 0 wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Valencia won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Valencia win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sevilla vs Valencia with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.45

75%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.44 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.8%	8.5%	5.3%	2.2%	0.7%
1	9.8%	12.2%	7.6%	3.2%	1.0%
2	7.0%	8.8%	5.5%	2.3%	0.7%
3	3.4%	4.2%	2.6%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.2%	1.5%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Sevilla winDrawValencia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sevilla vs Valencia is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.45, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Valencia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.38 (+19.9% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 2.38, 50% model probability, +19.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Sevilla 35%Draw 28%Valencia 37%

35%28%37%

37%

Valencia Win

50%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

+19.9%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Sevilla and Valencia. Wins shown from Sevilla’s perspective: 3 drawn · Valencia 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-21	Sevilla	0 – 2	Valencia	L
2025-12-07	Valencia	1 – 1	Sevilla	D
2025-04-11	Valencia	1 – 0	Sevilla	L
2025-01-11	Sevilla	1 – 1	Valencia	D
2024-02-17	Valencia	0 – 0	Sevilla	D

📈 Recent form

Sevilla

Sevilla come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Athletic Club. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Atletico Madrid.

DEspanyol 1-1 SevillaLa Liga
LSevilla 1-3 Atletico MadridLa Liga
WAthletic Club 1-3 SevillaLa Liga
WSevilla 2-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
LBayer Leverkusen 2-1 SevillaFriendlies Clubs

Valencia

Valencia come into this game with 0 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at home to Barcelona.

LValencia 0-5 BarcelonaLa Liga
LDeportivo La Coruna 3-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LValencia 0-1 Real BetisLa Liga
DValencia 0-0 Celta VigoLa Liga
LValencia 1-2 NewcastleFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Sevilla

A. SanganteSuspended (red card)
R. VargasKnee Injury

Valencia

S. CanosKnee Injury
J. CopeteAnkle Injury
M. DiakhabyMuscle Injury
D. FoulquierInjury
D. LopezKnee Injury
L. RiojaInjury
U. SadiqMuscle Injury
J. De HaasAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sevilla at 35% to win and Valencia at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Valencia win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Valencia Win	37%	@ 3.70	+37.4%
Draw	28%	@ 3.20	-11.6%
Sevilla Win	35%	@ 2.10	-26.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Valencia or Draw at 1.72 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Valencia or Draw	64%	@ 1.72	+10.4%
Sevilla or Draw	62%	@ 1.27	-20.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	28%	@ 4.60	+30.5%
Over 2.5	50%	@ 2.38	+19.9%
Over 1.5	75%	@ 1.45	+8.7%
Under 3.5	72%	@ 1.18	-15.5%
Under 2.5	50%	@ 1.56	-22.6%
Under 1.5	25%	@ 2.75	-31.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	54%	@ 2.02	+9.5%
BTTS No	46%	@ 1.72	-21.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	44%
Dixon-Coles	Home	39%
GradientBoosting	Away	40%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.28 for the home side, 1.32 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sevilla vs Valencia?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.45, with 75% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.38 (+19.9% value).

Who is the favourite for Sevilla vs Valencia?

Our model makes a Valencia win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline for Sevilla vs Valencia.

What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Valencia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.44 for Sevilla and 1.25 for Valencia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sevilla and Valencia play?

Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.