⚽ La Liga
Sevilla vs Valencia Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sevilla vs Valencia in the La Liga. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Sevilla 1-0 Valencia
Sevilla vs Valencia finished 1-0. Sevilla won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.45, did not land.
Sevilla face Valencia in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Sevilla have 2 wins from their last 3, while Valencia have no wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Sevilla won 1, Valencia won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Valencia win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sevilla vs Valencia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 12.2% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Sevilla vs Valencia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Valencia with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Valencia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Sevilla and Valencia. Wins shown from Sevilla’s perspective: Sevilla 1 · 2 drawn · Valencia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sevilla | 1 – 0 | Valencia | W |
| 2026-03-21 | Sevilla | 0 – 2 | Valencia | L |
| 2025-12-07 | Valencia | 1 – 1 | Sevilla | D |
| 2025-04-11 | Valencia | 1 – 0 | Sevilla | L |
| 2025-01-11 | Sevilla | 1 – 1 | Valencia | D |
📈 Recent form
Sevilla come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Deportivo La Coruña. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Barcelona.
- LSevilla 1-3 BarcelonaLa Liga
- WDeportivo La Coruña 0-1 SevillaLa Liga
- WSevilla 1-0 ValenciaLa Liga
- DEspanyol 1-1 SevillaLa Liga
- LSevilla 1-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
Valencia come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Alavés. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Real Sociedad.
- LValencia 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
- WAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
- LSevilla 1-0 ValenciaLa Liga
- LValencia 0-5 BarcelonaLa Liga
- LDeportivo La Coruña 3-1 ValenciaLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. SanganteSuspended (red card)
- R. VargasKnee Injury
- S. CanosKnee Injury
- J. CopeteAnkle Injury
- M. DiakhabyMuscle Injury
- D. FoulquierInjury
- D. LopezKnee Injury
- L. RiojaInjury
- G. RodriguezMuscle Injury
- U. SadiqMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Sevilla at 35% to win and Valencia at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Valencia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia Win | 37% | 26% | @ 3.70 |
| Sevilla Win | 35% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Valencia or Draw at 1.72 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia or Draw | 64% | 55% | @ 1.72 |
| Sevilla or Draw | 62% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 65% | @ 1.45 |
| Under 3.5 | 72% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 60% | @ 1.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 20% | @ 4.60 |
| Under 1.5 | 25% | 35% | @ 2.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 46% | @ 2.02 |
| BTTS No | 46% | 54% | @ 1.72 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sevilla or Valencia is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia +1.75 | 87% | 82% | @ 1.16 |
| Valencia +1.5 | 84% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Sevilla +1.5 | 83% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Valencia +1.25 | 79% | 74% | @ 1.29 |
| Sevilla +1.25 | 78% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Valencia +1 | 74% | 70% | @ 1.37 |
| Sevilla +1 | 73% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Valencia +0.75 | 69% | 60% | @ 1.59 |
| Sevilla +0.75 | 68% | 81% | 1.18 |
| Valencia +0.5 | 64% | 53% | @ 1.81 |
| Sevilla +0.5 | 62% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Valencia +0.25 | 58% | 45% | @ 2.11 |
| Sevilla +0.25 | 56% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Valencia 0 | 51% | 35% | @ 2.76 |
| Sevilla 0 | 49% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Valencia -0.25 | 44% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
| Sevilla -0.25 | 42% | 55% | 1.75 |
| Valencia -0.5 | 38% | 25% | @ 3.83 |
| Sevilla -0.5 | 36% | 47% | 2.08 |
| Valencia -0.75 | 33% | 19% | @ 5.08 |
| Sevilla -0.75 | 31% | 40% | 2.41 |
| Valencia -1 | 27% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Sevilla -1 | 26% | 30% | 3.16 |
| Valencia -1.25 | 22% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Sevilla -1.25 | 21% | 26% | 3.62 |
| Valencia -1.5 | 17% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Sevilla -1.5 | 16% | 24% | 4.03 |
| Sevilla -1.75 | 13% | 18% | 5.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sevilla vs Valencia?
Our model's main pick is Valencia with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Sevilla vs Valencia?
Our model makes a Valencia win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline for Sevilla vs Valencia.
What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Valencia?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.44 for Sevilla and 1.25 for Valencia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Sevilla and Valencia play?
Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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