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⚽ Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sparta Rotterdam face Ajax in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:45 UTC. Recent form: Sparta Rotterdam have 1 win from their last 5, while Ajax have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Ajax won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 67%, projecting a 1.2-2.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Ajax Win @ 1.57

67%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.20 – 2.18 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	7.4%	8.1%	5.9%	3.2%
1	4.1%	8.9%	9.7%	7.1%	3.8%
2	2.5%	5.3%	5.8%	4.2%	2.3%
3	1.0%	2.1%	2.3%	1.7%	0.9%
4	0.3%	0.6%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-2

Sparta Rotterdam winDrawAjax win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is an Ajax win at odds 1.57, with a 67% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Ajax win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 67%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (62%).

📊 Key numbers

Sparta Rotterdam 17%Draw 16%Ajax 67%

17%16%67%

67%

Ajax Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax. Wins shown from Sparta Rotterdam’s perspective: 3 drawn · Ajax 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-14	Ajax	4 – 0	Sparta Rotterdam	L
2025-10-04	Sparta Rotterdam	3 – 3	Ajax	D
2025-04-27	Ajax	1 – 1	Sparta Rotterdam	D
2024-12-22	Sparta Rotterdam	0 – 2	Ajax	L
2024-03-17	Sparta Rotterdam	2 – 2	Ajax	D

📈 Recent form

Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 15. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Willem II. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Heerenveen.

WSparta Rotterdam 3-2 Willem IIEredivisie
DGo Ahead Eagles 3-3 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
LSparta Rotterdam 0-4 HeerenveenEredivisie
LPSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
DSparta Rotterdam 2-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie

Ajax

Ajax come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at HNK Hajduk Split.

WGroningen 2-5 AjaxEredivisie
LHNK Hajduk Split 2-1 AjaxUEFA Europa Conference
DAjax 1-1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sparta Rotterdam at 17% to win and Ajax at 67%, with the draw at 16%. Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax Win	67%	61%	@ 1.57
Sparta Rotterdam Win	17%	19%	@ 5.00
Draw	16%	20%	@ 4.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ajax or Draw at 1.17 (85% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax or Draw	85%	81%	@ 1.17
Sparta Rotterdam or Draw	35%	39%	@ 2.25

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-2.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	86%	@ 1.10
Over 2.5	66%	70%	@ 1.36
Under 3.5	56%	50%	@ 1.83
Over 3.5	44%	50%	@ 1.83
Under 2.5	34%	30%	@ 3.10
Under 1.5	15%	14%	@ 7.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	62%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	38%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 How the market moved

Sparta Rotterdam 19%Draw 20%Ajax 61%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?

Our model's pick is an Ajax win at odds 1.57, with a 67% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 61%.

Who is the favourite for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?

Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 67%. It projects an expected 1.2-2.2 scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax.

What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.18 for Ajax. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.