⚽ Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Friday 04 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sparta Rotterdam face PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie, kicking off Friday 04 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Sparta Rotterdam have 1 win from their last 5, while PEC Zwolle have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, PEC Zwolle won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.8-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.61

60%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.76 – 1.43 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.1%	5.9%	4.2%	2.0%	0.7%
1	7.2%	10.4%	7.4%	3.5%	1.3%
2	6.4%	9.1%	6.5%	3.1%	1.1%
3	3.7%	5.3%	3.8%	1.8%	0.7%
4	1.6%	2.4%	1.7%	0.8%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Sparta Rotterdam winDrawPEC Zwolle win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.61, the selection our model is most confident in at 60%. On the match result, the model rates a Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (64%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is PEC Zwolle or Draw at odds 1.91 (+10.6% model value).

Best value

PEC Zwolle or Draw at odds 1.91, 58% model probability, +10.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Sparta Rotterdam 41%Draw 28%PEC Zwolle 31%

41%28%31%

41%

Sparta Rotterdam Win

62%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

+10.6%

Best value: PEC Zwolle or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle. Wins shown from Sparta Rotterdam’s perspective: 2 drawn · PEC Zwolle 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-08	Sparta Rotterdam	1 – 1	PEC Zwolle	D
2025-11-08	PEC Zwolle	1 – 0	Sparta Rotterdam	L
2025-03-15	Sparta Rotterdam	1 – 1	PEC Zwolle	D
2024-11-30	PEC Zwolle	1 – 0	Sparta Rotterdam	L
2024-02-04	Sparta Rotterdam	0 – 2	PEC Zwolle	L

📈 Recent form

Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Telstar. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Excelsior.

LExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
DSparta Rotterdam 3-3 UtrechtEredivisie
WTelstar 1-3 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
LSparta Rotterdam 0-1 FeyenoordEredivisie
DSparta Rotterdam 0-0 MSV DuisburgFriendlies Clubs

PEC Zwolle

PEC Zwolle come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Heerenveen. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to NEC Nijmegen.

LPEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
WHeerenveen 0-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
LTwente 3-1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
LPEC Zwolle 0-2 AjaxEredivisie
LHannover 96 3-0 PEC ZwolleFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 3 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Sparta Rotterdam

R. van CruijsenInjury

PEC Zwolle

J. BurgerKnock
Y. NamliKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sparta Rotterdam at 41% to win and PEC Zwolle at 31%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
PEC Zwolle Win	31%	@ 3.75	+16.4%
Draw	28%	@ 3.80	+4.5%
Sparta Rotterdam Win	41%	@ 1.84	-23.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is PEC Zwolle or Draw at 1.91 (58% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
PEC Zwolle or Draw	58%	@ 1.91	+10.6%
Sparta Rotterdam or Draw	68%	@ 1.25	-14.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	38%	@ 2.55	-2.6%
Under 3.5	60%	@ 1.61	-2.6%
Under 1.5	17%	@ 5.50	-5.1%
Over 1.5	83%	@ 1.14	-5.7%
Over 2.5	62%	@ 1.49	-7.9%
Over 3.5	40%	@ 2.25	-11.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	36%	@ 2.55	-7.0%
BTTS Yes	64%	@ 1.45	-7.9%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	46%
Dixon-Coles	Home	44%
GradientBoosting	Home	39%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.41 for the home side, 1.19 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.61, with 60% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is PEC Zwolle or Draw at 1.91 (+10.6% value).

Who is the favourite for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

Our model makes a Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle.

What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.76 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.43 for PEC Zwolle. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle play?

Kick-off is Friday 04 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.