vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Sporting Kansas City face St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 00:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Sporting Kansas City won 2, St. Louis City won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a St. Louis City win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.7-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.50, the selection our model is most confident in at 71%. On the match result, the model rates a St. Louis City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points yes (68%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Sporting Kansas City or Draw at odds 1.77 (+6.3% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City. Wins shown from Sporting Kansas City’s perspective: Sporting Kansas City 2 · 2 drawn · St. Louis City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | St. Louis City | 3 – 1 | Sporting Kansas City | L |
| 2024-07-21 | Sporting Kansas City | 1 – 1 | St. Louis City | D |
| 2024-04-21 | Sporting Kansas City | 3 – 3 | St. Louis City | D |
| 2023-11-05 | Sporting Kansas City | 2 – 1 | St. Louis City | W |
| 2023-10-30 | St. Louis City | 1 – 4 | Sporting Kansas City | W |
📈 Recent form
Sporting Kansas City come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Los Angeles Galaxy. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Colorado Rapids.
- LColorado Rapids 2-0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- LSporting Kansas City 1-2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- WAustin 1-2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- WSporting Kansas City 3-1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- LPortland Timbers 6-0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
St. Louis City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Austin. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSan Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WSt. Louis City 3-0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- DDC United 1-1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WSt. Louis City 2-1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- WColorado Rapids 0-1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- K. AgyabengSuspended (red card)
- M. MosqueraSuspended (red card)
- O. BlorianBack Injury
- Diego BorgesMuscle Injury
- J. ReynoldsMuscle Injury
- Celio PompeuKnee Injury
- K. HiebertHip Injury
- B. McSorleyAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Sporting Kansas City at 32% to win and St. Louis City at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a St. Louis City win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 30% | @ 3.85 | +14.0% |
| Sporting Kansas City Win | 32% | @ 3.20 | +2.7% |
| St. Louis City Win | 38% | @ 2.02 | -22.7% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sporting Kansas City or Draw at 1.77 (60% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City or Draw | 60% | @ 1.77 | +6.3% |
| St. Louis City or Draw | 66% | @ 1.33 | -11.9% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 50% | @ 2.25 | +11.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | @ 1.50 | +6.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | @ 1.17 | +3.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 50% | @ 1.62 | -18.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | @ 2.55 | -25.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | @ 5.00 | -40.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 68% | @ 1.45 | -1.2% |
| BTTS No | 32% | @ 2.55 | -18.8% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 48% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 60% |
| GradientBoosting | Draw | 36% |
Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.
Expected goals: 1.23 for the home side, 1.36 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (7%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City?
Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.50, with 71% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Sporting Kansas City or Draw at 1.77 (+6.3% value).
Who is the favourite for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City?
Our model makes a St. Louis City win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.7-2.0 scoreline for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.68 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.98 for St. Louis City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City play?
Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 00:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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