⚽ Major League Soccer
Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Result: Sporting Kansas City 1-1 St. Louis City
Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Sporting Kansas City face St. Louis City in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 00:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Sporting Kansas City won 1, St. Louis City won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a St. Louis City win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.7-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Sporting Kansas City with a +1.75 start at odds 1.26, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a St. Louis City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points yes (68%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City. Wins shown from Sporting Kansas City’s perspective: Sporting Kansas City 1 · 3 drawn · St. Louis City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Sporting Kansas City | 1 – 1 | St. Louis City | D |
| 2024-09-29 | St. Louis City | 3 – 1 | Sporting Kansas City | L |
| 2024-07-21 | Sporting Kansas City | 1 – 1 | St. Louis City | D |
| 2024-04-21 | Sporting Kansas City | 3 – 3 | St. Louis City | D |
| 2023-11-05 | Sporting Kansas City | 2 – 1 | St. Louis City | W |
📈 Recent form
Sporting Kansas City come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 14. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Los Angeles FC. Their most recent defeat was 3-4 at home to Philadelphia Union.
- LSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WSporting Kansas City 3-1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- LFC Dallas 4-3 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- LSporting Kansas City 0-3 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- LAtlanta United FC 2-1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
St. Louis City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Colorado Rapids. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WColorado Rapids 0-3 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- WSt. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- DPortland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WVancouver Whitecaps 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- K. AgyabengSuspended (red card)
- M. MosqueraSuspended (red card)
- Celio PompeuKnee Injury
- K. HiebertHip Injury
- B. McSorleyAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Sporting Kansas City at 32% to win and St. Louis City at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a St. Louis City win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City Win | 38% | 50% | @ 1.86 |
| Sporting Kansas City Win | 32% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
| Draw | 30% | 24% | @ 3.85 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is St. Louis City or Draw at 1.27 (66% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City or Draw | 66% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Sporting Kansas City or Draw | 60% | 50% | @ 1.90 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 64% | @ 1.47 |
| Under 3.5 | 50% | 57% | @ 1.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | 17% | @ 5.40 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 68% | 64% | @ 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 32% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sporting Kansas City or St. Louis City is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City +2 | 87% | 82% | @ 1.16 |
| St. Louis City +1.5 | 86% | – | 1.09 |
| Sporting Kansas City +1.75 | 84% | 75% | @ 1.26 |
| Sporting Kansas City +1.5 | 82% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| St. Louis City +1.25 | 81% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Sporting Kansas City +1.25 | 76% | 66% | @ 1.45 |
| St. Louis City +1 | 76% | 86% | 1.10 |
| St. Louis City +0.75 | 71% | – | 1.21 |
| Sporting Kansas City +1 | 71% | 61% | @ 1.56 |
| St. Louis City +0.5 | 66% | – | 1.27 |
| Sporting Kansas City +0.75 | 65% | 53% | @ 1.80 |
| Sporting Kansas City +0.5 | 60% | 48% | @ 1.97 |
| St. Louis City +0.25 | 60% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Sporting Kansas City +0.25 | 54% | 41% | @ 2.35 |
| St. Louis City 0 | 53% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Sporting Kansas City 0 | 47% | 32% | @ 2.96 |
| St. Louis City -0.25 | 46% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Sporting Kansas City -0.25 | 40% | 27% | @ 3.49 |
| St. Louis City -0.5 | 40% | 52% | 1.81 |
| St. Louis City -0.75 | 35% | 47% | 2.06 |
| St. Louis City -1 | 29% | 39% | 2.44 |
| Sporting Kansas City -1 | 24% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| St. Louis City -1.25 | 24% | 34% | 2.77 |
| Sporting Kansas City -1.25 | 19% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| St. Louis City -1.5 | 18% | 31% | 3.08 |
| St. Louis City -1.75 | 16% | 25% | 3.70 |
| St. Louis City -2 | 13% | 18% | 5.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City?
Our model's main pick is Sporting Kansas City with a +1.75 start at odds 1.26, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City?
Our model makes a St. Louis City win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.7-2.0 scoreline for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.68 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.98 for St. Louis City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City play?
Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 00:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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