⚽ Major League Soccer
St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC.
Result: St. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FC
St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC finished 4-2. St. Louis City won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.60, landed.
St. Louis City face Minnesota United FC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: St. Louis City have 3 wins from their last 5, while Minnesota United FC have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, St. Louis City won 2, Minnesota United FC won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a St. Louis City win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.9-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 4.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Minnesota United FC with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a St. Louis City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points yes (71%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC. Wins shown from St. Louis City’s perspective: St. Louis City 2 · Minnesota United FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | St. Louis City | 4 – 2 | Minnesota United FC | W |
| 2024-10-20 | Minnesota United FC | 4 – 1 | St. Louis City | L |
| 2024-09-15 | St. Louis City | 1 – 3 | Minnesota United FC | L |
| 2023-09-24 | Minnesota United FC | 1 – 2 | St. Louis City | W |
| 2023-04-02 | St. Louis City | 0 – 1 | Minnesota United FC | L |
📈 Recent form
St. Louis City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Colorado Rapids. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WColorado Rapids 0-3 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- WSt. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- DPortland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WVancouver Whitecaps 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Minnesota United FC come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 17. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Los Angeles Galaxy.
- LMinnesota United FC 2-3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- LSt. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- LMinnesota United FC 1-2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- LPortland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- DMinnesota United FC 3-3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- P. AultAnkle Injury
- Celio PompeuKnee Injury
- K. HiebertHip Injury
- B. McSorleyLacking Match Fitness
- B. HlongwaneKnee Injury
- P. StroudMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices St. Louis City at 43% to win and Minnesota United FC at 34%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a St. Louis City win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City Win | 43% | 47% | @ 1.98 |
| Minnesota United FC Win | 34% | 27% | @ 3.40 |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | @ 3.65 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is St. Louis City or Draw at 1.29 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City or Draw | 68% | 73% | @ 1.29 |
| Minnesota United FC or Draw | 59% | 53% | @ 1.79 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 72% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 | 72% | 59% | @ 1.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 51% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
| Under 3.5 | 49% | 63% | @ 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
| Under 1.5 | 11% | 20% | @ 4.60 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 71%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 71% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 29% | 39% | @ 2.35 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when St. Louis City or Minnesota United FC is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC +2 | 87% | 84% | 1.12 |
| St. Louis City +1.5 | 86% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Minnesota United FC +1.75 | 84% | 77% | @ 1.22 |
| St. Louis City +1.25 | 82% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Minnesota United FC +1.5 | 81% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| St. Louis City +1 | 77% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Minnesota United FC +1.25 | 75% | 70% | @ 1.38 |
| St. Louis City +0.75 | 72% | 78% | 1.23 |
| Minnesota United FC +1 | 70% | 66% | @ 1.45 |
| St. Louis City +0.5 | 68% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Minnesota United FC +0.75 | 64% | 59% | @ 1.64 |
| St. Louis City +0.25 | 61% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Minnesota United FC +0.5 | 59% | 52% | @ 1.83 |
| St. Louis City 0 | 54% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Minnesota United FC +0.25 | 52% | 46% | @ 2.10 |
| St. Louis City -0.25 | 48% | 54% | 1.75 |
| Minnesota United FC 0 | 46% | 36% | @ 2.62 |
| St. Louis City -0.5 | 41% | 48% | 2.02 |
| Minnesota United FC -0.25 | 39% | 32% | @ 3.03 |
| St. Louis City -0.75 | 36% | 41% | 2.31 |
| Minnesota United FC -0.5 | 32% | 27% | @ 3.47 |
| St. Louis City -1 | 30% | 34% | 2.80 |
| Minnesota United FC -0.75 | 28% | 22% | @ 4.25 |
| St. Louis City -1.25 | 25% | 30% | 3.15 |
| Minnesota United FC -1 | 23% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| St. Louis City -1.5 | 19% | 27% | 3.56 |
| Minnesota United FC -1.25 | 18% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| St. Louis City -1.75 | 16% | 23% | 4.15 |
| Minnesota United FC -1.5 | 14% | 14% | 7.00 |
| St. Louis City -2 | 13% | 16% | 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC?
Our model's main pick is Minnesota United FC with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC?
Our model makes a St. Louis City win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.8 scoreline for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC.
What is the predicted score for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.95 for St. Louis City and 1.78 for Minnesota United FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC play?
Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Sassuolovs
LazioSerie ASassuolo Asian Handicap +1.25@ 1.30Tue 27 Oct17:30
AS Romavs
CagliariSerie AAS Roma Asian Handicap -0.5@ 1.32Tue 27 Oct19:45
Torinovs
ComoSerie ATorino Asian Handicap +1.75@ 1.33Tue 27 Oct19:45
Beneventovs
CatanzaroSerie BTue 27 Oct18:00
Ascolivs
SampdoriaSerie BTue 27 Oct19:00
Cesenavs
EmpoliSerie BTue 27 Oct19:00Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.