⚽ Premiership

ST Mirren vs Celtic Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for ST Mirren vs Celtic in the Premiership. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

ST Mirren face Celtic in the Premiership, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: ST Mirren have 3 wins from their last 5, while Celtic have 5 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Celtic win the most likely result at 66%, projecting a 0.7-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for ST Mirren vs Celtic with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.56

72%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.72 – 1.94 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.0%	13.6%	13.2%	8.5%	4.1%
1	5.0%	9.8%	9.5%	6.1%	3.0%
2	1.8%	3.5%	3.4%	2.2%	1.1%
3	0.4%	0.8%	0.8%	0.5%	0.3%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

ST Mirren winDrawCeltic win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for ST Mirren vs Celtic is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.56, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates a Celtic win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 66%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points no (57%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.43 (+22.4% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 2.43, 50% model probability, +22.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

ST Mirren 13%Draw 21%Celtic 66%

13%21%66%

66%

Celtic Win

50%

Under 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS no

+22.4%

Best value: Under 2.5

📈 Recent form

ST Mirren

ST Mirren come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Falkirk. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-5 at Rangers.

WKilmarnock 0-1 ST MirrenPremiership
DST Mirren 3-3 MotherwellPremiership
LRangers 5-1 ST MirrenLeague Cup
WST Mirren 1-0 ST JohnstonePremiership
WFalkirk 0-2 ST MirrenPremiership

Celtic

Celtic come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Dundee Utd. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-4 at Lask Linz.

WCeltic 3-0 AberdeenPremiership
WCeltic 2-1 FalkirkPremiership
LLask Linz 4-1 CelticUEFA Champions League
WCeltic 3-0 Lask LinzUEFA Champions League
WDundee Utd 0-4 CelticLeague Cup

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices ST Mirren at 13% to win and Celtic at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Celtic win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Celtic Win	66%	@ 1.43	-5.3%
Draw	21%	@ 4.35	-9.3%
ST Mirren Win	13%	@ 6.40	-17.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Celtic or Draw at 1.10 (86% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Celtic or Draw	86%	@ 1.10	-4.8%
ST Mirren or Draw	33%	@ 2.70	-10.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.7-1.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	26%	@ 5.10	+30.6%
Under 2.5	50%	@ 2.43	+22.4%
Under 3.5	72%	@ 1.56	+12.8%
Over 1.5	74%	@ 1.14	-15.2%
Over 2.5	50%	@ 1.52	-24.5%
Over 3.5	28%	@ 2.33	-35.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	57%	@ 2.07	+17.1%
BTTS Yes	43%	@ 1.65	-28.3%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	62%
Dixon-Coles	Away	70%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 0.81 for the home side, 2.08 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (16%), 0-2 (16%), 0-3 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for ST Mirren vs Celtic?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.56, with 72% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.43 (+22.4% value).

Who is the favourite for ST Mirren vs Celtic?

Our model makes a Celtic win the most likely result at 66%. It projects an expected 0.7-1.9 scoreline for ST Mirren vs Celtic.

What is the predicted score for ST Mirren vs Celtic?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.72 for ST Mirren and 1.94 for Celtic. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do ST Mirren and Celtic play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.