⚽ Premiership

ST Mirren vs Motherwell Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for ST Mirren vs Motherwell in the Premiership. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

ST Mirren face Motherwell in the Premiership, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: ST Mirren have 3 wins from their last 5, while Motherwell have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Motherwell win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 0.9-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for ST Mirren vs Motherwell with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

87%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.91 – 1.00 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	14.8%	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	0.6%
1	13.5%	13.5%	6.7%	2.2%	0.6%
2	6.1%	6.1%	3.1%	1.0%	0.3%
3	1.9%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-0

ST Mirren winDrawMotherwell win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for ST Mirren vs Motherwell is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 87%. On the match result, the model rates a Motherwell win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points no (62%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.83 (+28.3% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.83, 70% model probability, +28.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

ST Mirren 32%Draw 32%Motherwell 36%

32%32%36%

36%

Motherwell Win

70%

Under 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS no

+28.3%

Best value: Under 2.5

📈 Recent form

ST Mirren

ST Mirren come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Falkirk. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at Rangers.

LRangers 5-1 ST MirrenLeague Cup
WST Mirren 1-0 ST JohnstonePremiership
WFalkirk 0-2 ST MirrenPremiership
LST Mirren 0-1 DunfermlineLeague Cup
WST Mirren 4-3 East KilbrideLeague Cup

Motherwell

Motherwell come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to HJK Helsinki. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to SC Freiburg.

LMotherwell 1-3 SC FreiburgUEFA Europa Conference
DStenhousemuir 0-0 MotherwellLeague Cup
WMotherwell 2-0 HJK HelsinkiUEFA Europa Conference
DMotherwell 0-0 FalkirkPremiership
DHJK Helsinki 1-1 MotherwellUEFA Europa Conference

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices ST Mirren at 32% to win and Motherwell at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Motherwell win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	32%	@ 3.30	+6.0%
Motherwell Win	36%	@ 2.76	+0.3%
ST Mirren Win	32%	@ 2.45	-22.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Motherwell or Draw at 1.53 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Motherwell or Draw	66%	@ 1.53	+0.4%
ST Mirren or Draw	61%	@ 1.42	-13.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 70% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	43%	@ 3.35	+44.4%
Under 2.5	70%	@ 1.83	+28.3%
Under 3.5	87%	@ 1.30	+13.5%
Over 1.5	57%	@ 1.30	-26.0%
Over 2.5	30%	@ 1.95	-41.7%
Over 3.5	13%	@ 3.40	-56.8%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	62%	@ 2.05	+27.0%
BTTS Yes	38%	@ 1.73	-34.2%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for ST Mirren vs Motherwell?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with 87% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 1.83 (+28.3% value).

Who is the favourite for ST Mirren vs Motherwell?

Our model makes a Motherwell win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.0 scoreline for ST Mirren vs Motherwell.

What is the predicted score for ST Mirren vs Motherwell?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-0, based on expected goals of 0.91 for ST Mirren and 1.00 for Motherwell. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do ST Mirren and Motherwell play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.