Sun 30 Aug3-3Finished

⚽ Premiership

St Mirren vs Motherwell Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for St Mirren vs Motherwell in the Premiership. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: St Mirren 3-3 Motherwell

St Mirren vs Motherwell finished 3-3. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

St Mirren face Motherwell in the Premiership, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: St Mirren have 3 wins from their last 5, while Motherwell have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Motherwell win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 0.9-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for St Mirren vs Motherwell with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.28

88%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.91 – 0.99 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	15.0%	14.8%	7.3%	2.4%	0.6%
1	13.6%	13.5%	6.7%	2.2%	0.5%
2	6.2%	6.1%	3.0%	1.0%	0.2%
3	1.9%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-0

St Mirren winDrawMotherwell win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for St Mirren vs Motherwell comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 88% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Motherwell win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points no (62%).

📊 Key numbers

St Mirren 32%Draw 32%Motherwell 36%

32%32%36%

36%

Motherwell Win

70%

Under 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

St Mirren

St Mirren come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Kilmarnock. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Dundee Utd.

LSt Mirren 0-3 Dundee UtdPremiership
LRangers 1-0 St MirrenPremiership
LSt Mirren 1-2 CelticPremiership
WKilmarnock 0-1 St MirrenPremiership
DSt Mirren 3-3 MotherwellPremiership

Motherwell

Motherwell come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Dundee Utd. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Dundee.

LDundee 2-1 MotherwellPremiership
LMotherwell 0-4 AberdeenPremiership
LRangers 1-0 MotherwellPremiership
WMotherwell 3-0 Dundee UtdPremiership
DSt Mirren 3-3 MotherwellPremiership

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices St Mirren at 32% to win and Motherwell at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Motherwell win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Motherwell Win	36%	33%	@ 2.80
Draw	32%	29%	@ 3.20
St Mirren Win	32%	38%	@ 2.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Motherwell or Draw at 1.53 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Motherwell or Draw	65%	62%	@ 1.53
St Mirren or Draw	61%	67%	@ 1.41

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 70% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	88%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	70%	52%	@ 1.78
Over 1.5	57%	72%	@ 1.30
Under 1.5	43%	28%	@ 3.35
Over 2.5	30%	48%	@ 1.96
Over 3.5	12%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	62%	46%	@ 2.00
BTTS Yes	38%	54%	@ 1.70

📈 How the market moved

St Mirren 37%Draw 29%Motherwell 34%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for St Mirren vs Motherwell?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 88% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for St Mirren vs Motherwell?

Our model makes a Motherwell win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.0 scoreline for St Mirren vs Motherwell.

What is the predicted score for St Mirren vs Motherwell?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-0, based on expected goals of 0.91 for St Mirren and 0.99 for Motherwell. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do St Mirren and Motherwell play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.