⚽ UEFA Europa League

Sturm Graz vs Rennes Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sturm Graz vs Rennes in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sturm Graz face Rennes in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Rennes win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 0.9-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sturm Graz vs Rennes with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.45

74%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.86 – 1.71 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	13.1%	11.2%	6.4%	2.7%
1	6.6%	11.3%	9.6%	5.5%	2.3%
2	2.8%	4.8%	4.1%	2.4%	1.0%
3	0.8%	1.4%	1.2%	0.7%	0.3%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-1

Sturm Graz winDrawRennes win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sturm Graz vs Rennes is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.45, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates a Rennes win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points no (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 2.28 (+26.1% model value).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 2.28, 55% model probability, +26.1% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Sturm Graz 27%Draw 26%Rennes 47%

27%26%47%

47%

Rennes Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

+26.1%

Best value: BTTS No

📈 Recent form

Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Voitsberg. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Rapid Vienna.

WVoitsberg 1-4 Sturm GrazCup
LRapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
DSturm Graz 1-1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
WSturm Graz 1-0 SCR AltachBundesliga
LSturm Graz 0-1 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League

Rennes

Rennes come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 11. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Angers. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Sunderland.

WAngers 1-2 RennesLigue 1
WRennes 3-2 Le MansLigue 1
DParis Saint Germain 2-2 RennesLigue 1
LSunderland 2-1 RennesFriendlies Clubs
LRennes 2-4 BrentfordFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sturm Graz at 27% to win and Rennes at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Rennes win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	26%	@ 3.70	-2.0%
Rennes Win	47%	@ 2.04	-4.3%
Sturm Graz Win	27%	@ 3.35	-11.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rennes or Draw at 1.30 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Rennes or Draw	73%	@ 1.30	-5.2%
Sturm Graz or Draw	53%	@ 1.76	-7.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	27%	@ 4.35	+18.9%
Under 2.5	53%	@ 2.15	+13.1%
Under 3.5	74%	@ 1.45	+7.7%
Over 1.5	73%	@ 1.21	-12.1%
Over 2.5	47%	@ 1.66	-21.3%
Over 3.5	26%	@ 2.65	-31.8%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	55%	@ 2.28	+26.1%
BTTS Yes	45%	@ 1.56	-30.3%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Rennes?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.45, with 74% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 2.28 (+26.1% value).

Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Rennes?

Our model makes a Rennes win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.7 scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Rennes.

What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Rennes?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.86 for Sturm Graz and 1.71 for Rennes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sturm Graz and Rennes play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.