⚽ Major League Soccer
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Toronto FC 4-4 Chicago Fire
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire finished 4-4. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Toronto FC face Chicago Fire in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Toronto FC have 2 wins from their last 5, while Chicago Fire have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Chicago Fire won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.5-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Toronto FC with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Chicago Fire win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (64%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Toronto FC and Chicago Fire. Wins shown from Toronto FC’s perspective: 2 drawn · Chicago Fire 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Toronto FC | 4 – 4 | Chicago Fire | D |
| 2026-05-24 | Chicago Fire | 2 – 1 | Toronto FC | L |
| 2024-09-29 | Chicago Fire | 1 – 1 | Toronto FC | D |
| 2024-06-15 | Toronto FC | 1 – 4 | Chicago Fire | L |
| 2023-07-16 | Chicago Fire | 1 – 0 | Toronto FC | L |
📈 Recent form
Toronto FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Nashville SC. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at St. Louis City.
- LSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- LOrlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Chicago Fire come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Nashville SC.
- LNashville SC 3-0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- LChicago Fire 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- DChicago Fire 1-1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- DSeattle Sounders 2-2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. DorschFace Injury
- J. OsorioKnee Injury
- N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
- J. BambaLower-Body Injury
- A. FrancoKnee Injury
- M. MbokaziLower-Body Injury
- C. MuellerNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toronto FC at 34% to win and Chicago Fire at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire Win | 41% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
| Toronto FC Win | 34% | 33% | @ 2.80 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | @ 3.65 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Chicago Fire or Draw at 1.41 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire or Draw | 67% | 67% | @ 1.41 |
| Toronto FC or Draw | 60% | 59% | @ 1.60 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 81% | @ 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 61% | @ 1.54 |
| Under 3.5 | 59% | 60% | @ 1.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 40% | @ 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 39% | @ 2.40 |
| Under 1.5 | 16% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 64% | @ 1.45 |
| BTTS No | 36% | 36% | @ 2.55 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Toronto FC or Chicago Fire is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC +2 | 87% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Chicago Fire +1.5 | 86% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Toronto FC +1.75 | 84% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Toronto FC +1.5 | 81% | 76% | 1.23 |
| Chicago Fire +1.25 | 81% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Chicago Fire +1 | 76% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Toronto FC +1.25 | 76% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Chicago Fire +0.75 | 71% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Toronto FC +1 | 70% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Chicago Fire +0.5 | 67% | 67% | 1.41 |
| Toronto FC +0.75 | 65% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Chicago Fire +0.25 | 60% | 63% | 1.51 |
| Toronto FC +0.5 | 60% | 58% | 1.65 |
| Chicago Fire 0 | 53% | 57% | 1.69 |
| Toronto FC +0.25 | 53% | 51% | 1.88 |
| Chicago Fire -0.25 | 47% | 49% | 1.97 |
| Toronto FC 0 | 47% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Chicago Fire -0.5 | 40% | 42% | 2.26 |
| Toronto FC -0.25 | 40% | 37% | @ 2.56 |
| Chicago Fire -0.75 | 35% | 36% | 2.63 |
| Toronto FC -0.5 | 33% | 33% | 2.92 |
| Chicago Fire -1 | 30% | 28% | 3.34 |
| Toronto FC -0.75 | 29% | 27% | @ 3.58 |
| Chicago Fire -1.25 | 24% | 25% | 3.75 |
| Toronto FC -1 | 24% | 20% | @ 4.65 |
| Toronto FC -1.25 | 19% | 18% | 5.25 |
| Chicago Fire -1.5 | 19% | 24% | 4.00 |
| Chicago Fire -1.75 | 16% | 18% | 5.25 |
| Toronto FC -1.5 | 14% | 17% | 5.75 |
| Chicago Fire -2 | 13% | 14% | 6.60 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
Our model's main pick is Toronto FC with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
Our model makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.7 scoreline for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.53 for Toronto FC and 1.72 for Chicago Fire. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toronto FC and Chicago Fire play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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