⚽ Major League Soccer

Toronto FC vs New York City FC Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toronto FC vs New York City FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Toronto FC face New York City FC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Toronto FC have 2 wins from their last 5, while New York City FC have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Toronto FC won 1, New York City FC won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.4-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toronto FC vs New York City FC with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.55

68%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.35 – 1.48 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.9%	8.7%	6.5%	3.2%	1.2%
1	8.0%	11.8%	8.7%	4.3%	1.6%
2	5.4%	8.0%	5.9%	2.9%	1.1%
3	2.4%	3.6%	2.7%	1.3%	0.5%
4	0.8%	1.2%	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Toronto FC winDrawNew York City FC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Toronto FC vs New York City FC is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.55, the selection our model is most confident in at 68%. On the match result, the model rates a New York City FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (57%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.55, 68% model probability, +6.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Toronto FC 34%Draw 27%New York City FC 39%

34%27%39%

39%

New York City FC Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

+6.2%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Toronto FC and New York City FC. Wins shown from Toronto FC’s perspective: Toronto FC 1 · 1 drawn · New York City FC 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-31	New York City FC	1 – 1	Toronto FC	D
2024-05-11	Toronto FC	2 – 3	New York City FC	L
2024-03-16	New York City FC	2 – 1	Toronto FC	L
2023-09-24	New York City FC	3 – 0	Toronto FC	L
2023-04-29	Toronto FC	1 – 0	New York City FC	W

📈 Recent form

Toronto FC

Toronto FC come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Inter Miami. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at DC United.

WInter Miami 1-2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
DToronto FC 3-3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
WToronto FC 2-1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
DNew York City FC 1-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
LDC United 2-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

New York City FC

New York City FC come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Santos Laguna. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at FC Cincinnati.

LFC Cincinnati 2-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
LNew York City FC 2-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
LNew York City FC 1-2 NecaxaLeagues Cup
LCruz Azul 2-1 New York City FCLeagues Cup
WNew York City FC 2-0 Santos LagunaLeagues Cup

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Toronto FC at 34% to win and New York City FC at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	27%	@ 3.65	+0.0%
New York City FC Win	39%	@ 2.52	-2.9%
Toronto FC Win	34%	@ 2.50	-14.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York City FC or Draw at 1.50 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
New York City FC or Draw	66%	@ 1.50	-1.8%
Toronto FC or Draw	61%	@ 1.50	-8.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	46%	@ 2.35	+8.6%
Under 1.5	23%	@ 4.75	+7.4%
Under 3.5	68%	@ 1.55	+6.2%
Over 1.5	77%	@ 1.18	-8.7%
Over 2.5	54%	@ 1.57	-15.6%
Over 3.5	32%	@ 2.40	-24.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	43%	@ 2.50	+8.3%
BTTS Yes	57%	@ 1.48	-16.1%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.55, with 68% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?

Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline for Toronto FC vs New York City FC.

What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Toronto FC and 1.48 for New York City FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Toronto FC and New York City FC play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.