ā½ Major League Soccer
Toronto FC vs New York City FC Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toronto FC vs New York City FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Toronto FC 1-1 New York City FC
Toronto FC vs New York City FC finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Toronto FC face New York City FC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Toronto FC have 2 wins from their last 5, while New York City FC have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, New York City FC won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.4-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toronto FC vs New York City FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
š„ Best Bet
šÆ Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
š§ Model summary
Our prediction for Toronto FC vs New York City FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.52, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a New York City FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (57%).
š Key numbers
š Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Toronto FC and New York City FC. Wins shown from Toronto FCās perspective: 2 drawn · New York City FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Toronto FC | 1 – 1 | New York City FC | D |
| 2026-07-31 | New York City FC | 1 – 1 | Toronto FC | D |
| 2024-05-11 | Toronto FC | 2 – 3 | New York City FC | L |
| 2024-03-16 | New York City FC | 2 – 1 | Toronto FC | L |
| 2023-09-24 | New York City FC | 3 – 0 | Toronto FC | L |
š Recent form
Toronto FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Nashville SC. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at St. Louis City.
- LSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- LOrlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
New York City FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Real Salt Lake. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to New York Red Bulls.
- LNew York City FC 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- WReal Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- LNew York City FC 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- DNew York City FC 0-0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
š„ Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. DorschFace Injury
- D. KerrLower-Body Injury
- J. OsorioKnee Injury
- N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
- D. BaieraKnee Injury
- A. FarnosInjury
- A. MartinezKnee Injury
- M. MoralezKnee Injury
- A. O'NeillAnkle Injury
- Talles MagnoMuscle Injury
- K. TrewinAnkle Injury
- H. WolfLeg Injury
ā½ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toronto FC at 34% to win and New York City FC at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC Win | 39% | 35% | @ 2.63 |
| Toronto FC Win | 34% | 39% | @ 2.40 |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
š Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York City FC or Draw at 1.54 (66% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC or Draw | 66% | 61% | @ 1.54 |
| Toronto FC or Draw | 61% | 65% | @ 1.46 |
š Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 81% | @ 1.16 |
| Under 3.5 | 68% | 62% | @ 1.52 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 40% | @ 2.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | 19% | @ 4.80 |
š„ Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 63% | @ 1.48 |
| BTTS No | 43% | 37% | @ 2.48 |
š How the market moved
ā Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.52, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 62%.
Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline for Toronto FC vs New York City FC.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Toronto FC and 1.48 for New York City FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toronto FC and New York City FC play?
Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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