⚽ Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lille Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toulouse vs Lille in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Thursday 03 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Toulouse 0-1 Lille
Toulouse vs Lille finished 0-1. Lille won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Toulouse face Lille in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Thursday 03 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Toulouse have 2 wins from their last 5, while Lille have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Lille won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lille win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.1-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toulouse vs Lille with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Toulouse vs Lille comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lille or Draw at odds 1.30, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lille win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Toulouse and Lille. Wins shown from Toulouse’s perspective: Lille 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Toulouse | 0 – 1 | Lille | L |
| 2026-04-12 | Toulouse | 0 – 4 | Lille | L |
| 2025-09-14 | Lille | 2 – 1 | Toulouse | L |
| 2025-04-12 | Toulouse | 1 – 2 | Lille | L |
| 2024-10-05 | Lille | 2 – 1 | Toulouse | L |
📈 Recent form
Toulouse come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Le Havre. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Lille.
- WToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
- DLorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
- LToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
- DBrest 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
- LToulouse 0-2 LyonLigue 1
Lille come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Estac Troyes. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Nice.
- LNice 2-1 LilleLigue 1
- WLille 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- LLille 2-3 Real BetisUEFA Champions League
- WToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
- DLille 2-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. DonnumPersonal Reasons
- A. FrancisMuscle Injury
- Y. GbohoTransfer negotiations
- S. DiaouneNot in squad
- H. IgamaneKnee Injury
- T. NianzouNot in squad
- L. SrdanovicNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toulouse at 24% to win and Lille at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Lille win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille Win | 48% | 44% | @ 2.12 |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | @ 3.30 |
| Toulouse Win | 24% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lille or Draw at 1.30 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille or Draw | 75% | 72% | @ 1.30 |
| Toulouse or Draw | 50% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 75% | 74% | @ 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 71% | @ 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 53% | @ 1.78 |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 47% | @ 2.02 |
| Under 1.5 | 28% | 29% | @ 3.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 52% | @ 1.78 |
| BTTS No | 49% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Toulouse or Lille is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille +1.5 | 91% | 86% | @ 1.11 |
| Lille +1.25 | 87% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Lille +1 | 83% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Toulouse +2 | 82% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Lille +0.75 | 79% | 80% | 1.20 |
| Toulouse +1.75 | 78% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Lille +0.5 | 75% | – | 1.28 |
| Toulouse +1.5 | 74% | – | 1.26 |
| Lille +0.25 | 69% | 71% | 1.35 |
| Toulouse +1.25 | 68% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Lille 0 | 62% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Toulouse +1 | 62% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Lille -0.25 | 56% | 55% | 1.75 |
| Toulouse +0.75 | 56% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Toulouse +0.5 | 50% | 53% | 1.79 |
| Lille -0.5 | 50% | 47% | @ 2.02 |
| Toulouse +0.25 | 44% | 45% | 2.11 |
| Lille -0.75 | 44% | 41% | @ 2.35 |
| Lille -1 | 38% | 32% | @ 2.99 |
| Toulouse 0 | 38% | 35% | @ 2.69 |
| Lille -1.25 | 32% | 28% | @ 3.42 |
| Toulouse -0.25 | 31% | 29% | @ 3.27 |
| Lille -1.75 | 22% | 20% | @ 4.65 |
| Toulouse -0.75 | 21% | 20% | @ 4.75 |
| Lille -2 | 18% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Toulouse -1 | 17% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Toulouse -1.25 | 13% | 14% | 7.00 |
| Toulouse -1.5 | 9% | 14% | 6.60 |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toulouse vs Lille?
Our model's main pick is Lille or Draw at odds 1.30, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.
Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Lille?
Our model makes a Lille win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.5 scoreline for Toulouse vs Lille.
What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Lille?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.07 for Toulouse and 1.47 for Lille. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toulouse and Lille play?
Kick-off is Thursday 03 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Benevento
Catanzaro
Ascoli
Sampdoria
Cesena
Empoli
Virtus Entella
Avellino
Vicenza Virtus
Modena
Mantova
CremoneseAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.