Fri 11 Sep1-3Finished

⚽ Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Union Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 finished 1-3. FC Schalke 04 won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, FC Schalke 04 or Draw at 1.70, landed.

Union Berlin face FC Schalke 04 in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FC Schalke 04 win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.5-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

FC Schalke 04 +1.5 @ 1.25

92%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.51 – 1.56 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.6%	7.2%	5.6%	2.9%	1.1%
1	7.0%	10.9%	8.5%	4.4%	1.7%
2	5.3%	8.3%	6.4%	3.3%	1.3%
3	2.7%	4.2%	3.2%	1.7%	0.7%
4	1.0%	1.6%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Union Berlin winDrawFC Schalke 04 win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is FC Schalke 04 with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, with a 92% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a FC Schalke 04 win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (62%).

📊 Key numbers

Union Berlin 20%Draw 30%FC Schalke 04 51%

20%30%51%

51%

FC Schalke 04 Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Union Berlin

Union Berlin come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 19. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Eintracht Braunschweig. Their most recent defeat was 0-7 at Bayern Munich.

LBayern Munich 7-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
LUnion Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
LBayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
DUnion Berlin 3-3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
WEintracht Braunschweig 2-4 Union BerlinDFB Pokal

FC Schalke 04

FC Schalke 04 come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Union Berlin. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at FC Augsburg.

DFC Schalke 04 0-0 SV ElversbergBundesliga
WUnion Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
DFC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern MunichBundesliga
LFC Augsburg 3-0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
DHallescher FC 2-2 FC Schalke 04DFB Pokal

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Union Berlin

O. BurkeAchilles Tendon Injury
M. FriedrichInjury
A. IlicIllness
K. ImeriThigh Injury
A. MarkgrafKnee Injury
S. NsokiMuscle Injury

FC Schalke 04

T. KalasLacking Match Fitness
R. SchallenbergSuspended (red card)

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Union Berlin at 20% to win and FC Schalke 04 at 51%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a FC Schalke 04 win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FC Schalke 04 Win	51%	32%	@ 2.95
Draw	30%	26%	@ 3.65
Union Berlin Win	20%	43%	@ 2.17

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FC Schalke 04 or Draw at 1.66 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FC Schalke 04 or Draw	78%	57%	@ 1.66
Union Berlin or Draw	47%	68%	@ 1.37

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	81%	@ 1.16
Under 3.5	63%	61%	@ 1.54
Over 2.5	59%	61%	@ 1.56
Under 2.5	41%	39%	@ 2.40
Over 3.5	37%	39%	@ 2.40
Under 1.5	19%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	62%	63%	@ 1.48
BTTS No	38%	37%	@ 2.50

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Union Berlin or FC Schalke 04 is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FC Schalke 04 +2	95%	86%	@ 1.10
FC Schalke 04 +1.75	94%	83%	@ 1.14
FC Schalke 04 +1.5	92%	–	@ 1.25
FC Schalke 04 +1.25	88%	76%	@ 1.26
FC Schalke 04 +1	85%	73%	@ 1.31
FC Schalke 04 +0.75	81%	65%	@ 1.47
FC Schalke 04 +0.5	78%	59%	@ 1.63
FC Schalke 04 +0.25	72%	53%	@ 1.84
Union Berlin +1.5	71%	84%	1.13
FC Schalke 04 0	66%	44%	@ 2.19
Union Berlin +1.25	65%	83%	1.15
FC Schalke 04 -0.25	60%	37%	@ 2.56
Union Berlin +1	59%	81%	1.17
FC Schalke 04 -0.5	53%	33%	@ 2.92
Union Berlin +0.75	53%	74%	1.28
FC Schalke 04 -0.75	47%	26%	@ 3.64
Union Berlin +0.5	47%	67%	1.42
FC Schalke 04 -1	41%	19%	@ 5.00
Union Berlin +0.25	40%	63%	1.52
FC Schalke 04 -1.25	35%	17%	@ 5.50
Union Berlin 0	34%	56%	1.71
FC Schalke 04 -1.5	29%	16%	@ 5.90
Union Berlin -0.25	28%	47%	2.04
Union Berlin -0.5	22%	41%	2.33
Union Berlin -0.75	19%	35%	2.73
Union Berlin -1	15%	27%	3.52
Union Berlin -1.25	12%	24%	3.91
Union Berlin -1.75	6%	17%	5.75
Union Berlin -2	5%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Union Berlin 41%Draw 27%FC Schalke 04 32%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?

Our model's main pick is FC Schalke 04 with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, with a 92% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 80%.

Who is the favourite for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?

Our model makes a FC Schalke 04 win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04.

What is the predicted score for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.51 for Union Berlin and 1.56 for FC Schalke 04. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 play?

Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.