Sat 12 Sep5-0Finished

⚽ Jupiler Pro League

Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United in the Jupiler Pro League. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Union St. Gilloise 5-0 Lommel United

Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United finished 5-0. Union St. Gilloise won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.68, did not land.

Union St. Gilloise face Lommel United in the upcoming Jupiler Pro League tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Union St. Gilloise have 4 wins from their last 5, while Lommel United have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.1-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lommel United +2 @ 1.78

86%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.12 – 0.90 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.3%	11.9%	5.4%	1.6%	0.4%
1	14.9%	13.4%	6.0%	1.8%	0.4%
2	8.3%	7.5%	3.4%	1.0%	0.2%
3	3.1%	2.8%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.9%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Union St. Gilloise winDrawLommel United win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lommel United with a +2 start at odds 1.78, with a 86% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points no (60%).

📊 Key numbers

Union St. Gilloise 40%Draw 31%Lommel United 28%

40%31%28%

40%

Union St. Gilloise Win

67%

Under 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Union St. Gilloise

Union St. Gilloise come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Lommel United. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WAntwerp 0-2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
WPlzen 0-3 Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League
WUnion St. Gilloise 5-0 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
WCharleroi 2-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
WSt. Truiden 0-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League

Lommel United

Lommel United come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to KVC Westerlo. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Union St. Gilloise.

DLommel United 0-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
LUnion St. Gilloise 5-0 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
LLommel United 0-1 Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro League
WCercle Brugge 0-1 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
WLommel United 4-0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Union St. Gilloise at 40% to win and Lommel United at 28%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Union St. Gilloise Win	40%	76%	@ 1.20
Draw	31%	16%	@ 5.75
Lommel United Win	28%	8%	@ 11.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Union St. Gilloise or Draw at 1.05 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Union St. Gilloise or Draw	69%	92%	@ 1.05
Lommel United or Draw	57%	24%	@ 4.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	85%	56%	@ 1.67
Under 2.5	67%	35%	@ 2.70
Over 1.5	60%	84%	@ 1.12
Under 1.5	40%	16%	@ 6.00
Over 2.5	33%	65%	@ 1.44
Over 3.5	15%	44%	@ 2.10

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	60%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS Yes	40%	48%	@ 1.95

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Union St. Gilloise or Lommel United is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lommel United +2	86%	54%	@ 1.78
Lommel United +1.75	83%	47%	@ 2.05
Lommel United +1.5	80%	42%	@ 2.25
Lommel United +1.25	74%	36%	@ 2.65
Lommel United +0.5	57%	24%	@ 4.00
Lommel United +0.25	51%	17%	@ 5.50
Union St. Gilloise -0.25	49%	83%	1.15
Union St. Gilloise -0.5	43%	76%	1.23
Union St. Gilloise -0.75	37%	–	1.26
Union St. Gilloise -1	32%	–	1.30
Union St. Gilloise -1.25	26%	64%	1.48
Union St. Gilloise -1.5	20%	58%	1.65
Union St. Gilloise -1.75	17%	53%	1.79
Union St. Gilloise -2	14%	46%	2.06

📈 How the market moved

Union St. Gilloise 77%Draw 15%Lommel United 8%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United?

Our model's main pick is Lommel United with a +2 start at odds 1.78, with a 86% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 54%.

Who is the favourite for Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United?

Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.1-0.9 scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United.

What is the predicted score for Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.12 for Union St. Gilloise and 0.90 for Lommel United. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Union St. Gilloise and Lommel United play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.