⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 00:20 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Vasco DA Gama face Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 00:20 UTC. Recent form: Vasco DA Gama have 0 wins from their last 5, while Cruzeiro have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Cruzeiro won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 0.9-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.25

80%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.94 – 1.35 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	13.7%	9.2%	4.2%	1.4%
1	9.5%	12.9%	8.7%	3.9%	1.3%
2	4.5%	6.0%	4.1%	1.8%	0.6%
3	1.4%	1.9%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Vasco DA Gama winDrawCruzeiro win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a Cruzeiro win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 1.93 (+6.2% model value).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 1.93, 55% model probability, +6.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Vasco DA Gama 28%Draw 33%Cruzeiro 39%

28%33%39%

39%

Cruzeiro Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

+6.2%

Best value: BTTS No

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Vasco DA Gama and Cruzeiro. Wins shown from Vasco DA Gama’s perspective: 3 drawn · Cruzeiro 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-09-29	Cruzeiro	1 – 1	Vasco DA Gama	D
2024-06-16	Vasco DA Gama	0 – 0	Cruzeiro	D
2023-11-22	Cruzeiro	2 – 2	Vasco DA Gama	D
2023-07-08	Vasco DA Gama	0 – 1	Cruzeiro	L

📈 Recent form

Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Olimpia. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Palmeiras.

LPalmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA GamaBrazilian Série A
WOlimpia 1-4 Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LVasco DA Gama 0-3 SantosBrazilian Série A
DVasco DA Gama 0-0 OlimpiaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
DBahia 0-0 Vasco DA GamaBrazilian Série A

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Mirassol. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Flamengo.

WCruzeiro 2-1 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 2-1 CruzeiroCONMEBOL Libertadores
WCorinthians 1-2 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
DCruzeiro 1-1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
WCruzeiro 3-1 MirassolBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vasco DA Gama at 28% to win and Cruzeiro at 39%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Cruzeiro Win	39%	@ 2.82	+10.2%
Draw	33%	@ 3.20	+4.4%
Vasco DA Gama Win	28%	@ 2.48	-29.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.50 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Cruzeiro or Draw	68%	@ 1.50	+2.7%
Vasco DA Gama or Draw	58%	@ 1.42	-18.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	60%	@ 1.73	+3.6%
Under 1.5	33%	@ 3.10	+3.3%
Under 3.5	80%	@ 1.25	+0.2%
Over 1.5	67%	@ 1.36	-9.3%
Over 2.5	40%	@ 2.10	-15.7%
Over 3.5	20%	@ 3.75	-25.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	55%	@ 1.93	+6.2%
BTTS Yes	45%	@ 1.77	-20.4%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 80% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 1.93 (+6.2% value).

Who is the favourite for Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?

Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.4 scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro.

What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.94 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.35 for Cruzeiro. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vasco DA Gama and Cruzeiro play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 00:20 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.