Fri 11 Sep2-4Finished

⚽ Serie A

Venezia vs Fiorentina Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Venezia vs Fiorentina in the Serie A. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina

Venezia vs Fiorentina finished 2-4. Fiorentina won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.40, did not land.

Venezia face Fiorentina in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Venezia won 1, Fiorentina won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fiorentina win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 0.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Venezia vs Fiorentina with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.38

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.92 – 1.47 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.2%	13.5%	9.9%	4.9%	1.8%
1	8.4%	12.4%	9.1%	4.5%	1.6%
2	3.9%	5.7%	4.2%	2.1%	0.8%
3	1.2%	1.7%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-1

Venezia winDrawFiorentina win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Venezia vs Fiorentina comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Fiorentina win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Venezia 27%Draw 29%Fiorentina 44%

27%29%44%

44%

Fiorentina Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Venezia and Fiorentina. Wins shown from Venezia’s perspective: Venezia 1 · 1 drawn · Fiorentina 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-11	Venezia	2 – 4	Fiorentina	L
2025-05-12	Venezia	2 – 1	Fiorentina	W
2024-08-25	Fiorentina	0 – 0	Venezia	D

📈 Recent form

Venezia

Venezia come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Lazio.

LVenezia 0-2 LazioSerie A
LVenezia 2-4 FiorentinaSerie A
LFrosinone 3-2 VeneziaSerie A
LUdinese 2-1 VeneziaCoppa Italia
LAC Milan 2-0 VeneziaSerie A

Fiorentina

Fiorentina come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Pisa. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Torino.

DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
WFiorentina 3-0 PisaCoppa Italia
WVenezia 2-4 FiorentinaSerie A
LFiorentina 1-2 TorinoSerie A
LFiorentina 0-3 FrosinoneSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Venezia

A. AdoranteHernia
T. BasicFoot Injury
A. Bella-KotchapInjury
M. DagassoNot in squad
B. FranjicInjury
M. SverkoHip Injury

Fiorentina

F. ParisiKnee Injury
R. SottilBack Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Venezia at 27% to win and Fiorentina at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Fiorentina win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fiorentina Win	44%	40%	@ 2.32
Draw	29%	27%	@ 3.40
Venezia Win	27%	32%	@ 2.90

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fiorentina or Draw at 1.38 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fiorentina or Draw	72%	68%	@ 1.38
Venezia or Draw	54%	60%	@ 1.58

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	68%	@ 1.38
Over 1.5	69%	76%	@ 1.24
Under 2.5	57%	47%	@ 1.98
Over 2.5	43%	53%	@ 1.79
Under 1.5	31%	24%	@ 3.90
Over 3.5	22%	32%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	55%	43%	@ 2.20
BTTS Yes	45%	57%	@ 1.63

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Venezia or Fiorentina is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fiorentina +1.5	89%	85%	1.12
Fiorentina +1.25	85%	83%	1.14
Venezia +1.75	80%	83%	1.14
Fiorentina +1	80%	82%	1.17
Venezia +1.5	77%	79%	1.20
Fiorentina +0.75	76%	75%	1.27
Fiorentina +0.5	72%	69%	1.39
Venezia +1.25	71%	77%	1.25
Venezia +1	66%	74%	1.28
Fiorentina +0.25	65%	64%	1.50
Venezia +0.75	60%	65%	1.46
Fiorentina 0	59%	57%	1.68
Venezia +0.5	54%	59%	1.62
Fiorentina -0.25	52%	47%	@ 2.04
Venezia +0.25	48%	53%	1.84
Fiorentina -0.5	46%	41%	@ 2.34
Venezia 0	41%	43%	2.23
Fiorentina -0.75	40%	35%	@ 2.76
Venezia -0.25	35%	36%	2.65
Fiorentina -1	34%	26%	@ 3.66
Fiorentina -1.25	29%	23%	@ 4.07
Venezia -0.5	28%	31%	3.06
Venezia -0.75	24%	25%	3.82
Fiorentina -1.5	23%	21%	@ 4.40
Venezia -1	20%	18%	@ 5.33
Fiorentina -1.75	19%	17%	@ 5.75
Venezia -1.25	15%	17%	5.75
Venezia -1.5	11%	15%	6.25

📈 How the market moved

Venezia 31%Draw 29%Fiorentina 41%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Venezia vs Fiorentina?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for Venezia vs Fiorentina?

Our model makes a Fiorentina win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline for Venezia vs Fiorentina.

What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Fiorentina?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.92 for Venezia and 1.47 for Fiorentina. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Venezia and Fiorentina play?

Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.