⚽ Serie A

Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Venezia vs Fiorentina in the Serie A. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Venezia face Fiorentina in the Serie A, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Venezia won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fiorentina win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 0.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Venezia vs Fiorentina with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.38

78%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.92 – 1.47 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.2%	13.5%	9.9%	4.9%	1.8%
1	8.4%	12.4%	9.1%	4.5%	1.6%
2	3.9%	5.7%	4.2%	2.1%	0.8%
3	1.2%	1.7%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-1

Venezia winDrawFiorentina win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Venezia vs Fiorentina is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Fiorentina win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 2.20 (+20.4% model value).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 2.20, 55% model probability, +20.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Venezia 27%Draw 29%Fiorentina 44%

27%29%44%

44%

Fiorentina Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

+20.4%

Best value: BTTS No

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Venezia and Fiorentina. Wins shown from Venezia’s perspective: Venezia 1 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-05-12	Venezia	2 – 1	Fiorentina	W
2024-08-25	Fiorentina	0 – 0	Venezia	D

📈 Recent form

Venezia

Venezia come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Modena. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Frosinone.

LFrosinone 3-2 VeneziaSerie A
LUdinese 2-1 VeneziaCoppa Italia
LAC Milan 2-0 VeneziaSerie A
LVenezia 0-2 LecceSerie A
WVenezia 3-2 ModenaCoppa Italia

Fiorentina

Fiorentina come into this game with 0 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 14. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Torino.

LFiorentina 1-2 TorinoSerie A
LFiorentina 0-3 FrosinoneSerie A
LAS Roma 4-0 FiorentinaSerie A
LBenevento 4-1 FiorentinaCoppa Italia
DFiorentina 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Venezia

A. AdoranteHernia
T. BasicFoot Injury
A. Bella-KotchapInjury
B. FranjicInjury
M. SverkoHip Injury

Fiorentina

F. ParisiKnee Injury
R. SottilBack Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Venezia at 27% to win and Fiorentina at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Fiorentina win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Fiorentina Win	44%	@ 2.32	+3.0%
Draw	29%	@ 3.40	-1.9%
Venezia Win	27%	@ 2.90	-22.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fiorentina or Draw at 1.38 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Fiorentina or Draw	72%	@ 1.38	-1.1%
Venezia or Draw	54%	@ 1.58	-14.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	31%	@ 3.90	+21.1%
Under 2.5	57%	@ 1.98	+13.3%
Under 3.5	78%	@ 1.38	+7.8%
Over 1.5	69%	@ 1.24	-14.5%
Over 2.5	43%	@ 1.79	-23.4%
Over 3.5	22%	@ 3.00	-34.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	55%	@ 2.20	+20.4%
BTTS Yes	45%	@ 1.63	-26.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	42%
Dixon-Coles	Away	59%
GradientBoosting	Away	41%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.12 for the home side, 1.50 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (15%), 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (11%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Venezia vs Fiorentina?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.38, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 2.20 (+20.4% value).

Who is the favourite for Venezia vs Fiorentina?

Our model makes a Fiorentina win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline for Venezia vs Fiorentina.

What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Fiorentina?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.92 for Venezia and 1.47 for Fiorentina. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Venezia and Fiorentina play?

Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.