⚽ La Liga
Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La Coruña
Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña finished 2-3. Deportivo La Coruña won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Villarreal face Deportivo La Coruña in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Villarreal have 1 win from their last 5, while Deportivo La Coruña have 1 win from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 2.1-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Deportivo La Coruña with a +2 start at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Villarreal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (65%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Villarreal come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Levante. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Real Betis.
- WVillarreal 3-1 LevanteLa Liga
- WMálaga 1-3 VillarrealLa Liga
- LVillarreal 1-2 Real BetisLa Liga
- LBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- LVillarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
Deportivo La Coruña come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Valencia. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Sevilla.
- DDeportivo La Coruña 1-1 Real BetisLa Liga
- LDeportivo La Coruña 0-1 SevillaLa Liga
- DGetafe 1-1 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
- WVillarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
- WDeportivo La Coruña 3-1 ValenciaLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 3 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. FoythAchilles Tendon Injury
- A. AltimiraSuspended (red card)
- N. CarrilloInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Villarreal at 54% to win and Deportivo La Coruña at 18%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal Win | 54% | 65% | @ 1.46 |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| Deportivo La Coruña Win | 18% | 14% | @ 6.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Villarreal or Draw at 1.10 (79% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal or Draw | 79% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Deportivo La Coruña or Draw | 44% | 35% | @ 2.65 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.1-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 78% | @ 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | @ 1.70 |
| Under 3.5 | 55% | 66% | @ 1.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 34% | @ 2.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 44% | @ 2.14 |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | 22% | @ 4.30 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 51% | @ 1.84 |
| BTTS No | 35% | 49% | @ 1.89 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Villarreal or Deportivo La Coruña is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal +0.75 | 83% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Villarreal +0.5 | 79% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +2 | 78% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Villarreal +0.25 | 73% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +1.75 | 73% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +1.5 | 69% | 60% | @ 1.59 |
| Villarreal 0 | 68% | 80% | 1.19 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +1.25 | 63% | 55% | @ 1.74 |
| Villarreal -0.25 | 62% | 71% | 1.34 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +1 | 57% | 48% | @ 2.03 |
| Villarreal -0.5 | 56% | 63% | 1.51 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +0.75 | 50% | 41% | @ 2.32 |
| Villarreal -0.75 | 50% | 59% | 1.62 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +0.5 | 44% | 37% | @ 2.58 |
| Villarreal -1 | 43% | 52% | 1.85 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +0.25 | 38% | 29% | @ 3.29 |
| Villarreal -1.25 | 37% | 45% | 2.12 |
| Deportivo La Coruña 0 | 32% | 20% | @ 4.88 |
| Villarreal -1.5 | 31% | 40% | 2.40 |
| Villarreal -1.75 | 27% | 34% | 2.83 |
| Deportivo La Coruña -0.25 | 27% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Villarreal -2 | 23% | 26% | 3.67 |
| Deportivo La Coruña -0.5 | 21% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| Deportivo La Coruña -0.75 | 17% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña?
Our model's main pick is Deportivo La Coruña with a +2 start at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña?
Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 2.1-1.4 scoreline for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña.
What is the predicted score for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.10 for Villarreal and 1.35 for Deportivo La Coruña. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Villarreal and Deportivo La Coruña play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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