⚽ La Liga

Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Villarreal face Deportivo La Coruna in the La Liga, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Villarreal have 1 win from their last 5, while Deportivo La Coruna have 1 win from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 2.1-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.70

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.10 – 1.35 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	4.3%	2.9%	1.3%	0.4%
1	6.7%	9.0%	6.1%	2.7%	0.9%
2	7.0%	9.4%	6.4%	2.9%	1.0%
3	4.9%	6.6%	4.5%	2.0%	0.7%
4	2.6%	3.5%	2.3%	1.1%	0.4%

Projected score: 2-1

Villarreal winDrawDeportivo La Coruna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.70, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates a Villarreal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (65%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams to score at odds 1.84 (+19.5% model value).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 1.84, 65% model probability, +19.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Villarreal 54%Draw 28%Deportivo La Coruna 18%

54%28%18%

54%

Villarreal Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

65%

BTTS yes

+19.5%

Best value: BTTS Yes

📈 Recent form

Villarreal

Villarreal come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Galatasaray. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Alaves.

LAlaves 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga
DAtletico Madrid 2-2 VillarrealLa Liga
DRacing Santander 2-2 VillarrealLa Liga
WGalatasaray 1-2 VillarrealFriendlies Clubs
WVillarreal 1-0 LevanteFriendlies Clubs

Deportivo La Coruna

Deportivo La Coruna come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Valencia. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Real Madrid.

WDeportivo La Coruna 3-1 ValenciaLa Liga
DMalaga 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
DDeportivo La Coruna 1-1 ElcheLa Liga
LDeportivo La Coruna 0-1 Real MadridFriendlies Clubs
WGenoa 0-1 Deportivo La CorunaFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Villarreal

J. FoythInjury

Deportivo La Coruna

A. AltimiraSuspended (red card)
N. CarrilloInjury
M. CasadoCoach's decision
A. TraoreMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Villarreal at 54% to win and Deportivo La Coruna at 18%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	28%	@ 4.50	+26.1%
Deportivo La Coruna Win	18%	@ 6.75	+24.7%
Villarreal Win	54%	@ 1.46	-21.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Deportivo La Coruna or Draw at 2.65 (44% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Deportivo La Coruna or Draw	44%	@ 2.65	+17.4%
Villarreal or Draw	79%	@ 1.10	-12.8%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.1-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	45%	@ 2.80	+26.7%
Over 2.5	67%	@ 1.70	+13.9%
Over 1.5	86%	@ 1.20	+3.0%
Under 3.5	55%	@ 1.43	-21.7%
Under 2.5	33%	@ 2.14	-29.3%
Under 1.5	14%	@ 4.30	-39.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	65%	@ 1.84	+19.5%
BTTS No	35%	@ 1.89	-33.8%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	55%
GradientBoosting	Home	53%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.74 for the home side, 0.96 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.70, with 67% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams to score at 1.84 (+19.5% value).

Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?

Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 2.1-1.4 scoreline for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna.

What is the predicted score for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.10 for Villarreal and 1.35 for Deportivo La Coruna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Villarreal and Deportivo La Coruna play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.