⚽ Eredivisie

Willem II vs Excelsior Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Willem II vs Excelsior in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Willem II face Excelsior in the Eredivisie, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Willem II have 0 wins from their last 3, while Excelsior have 2 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Excelsior win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.5-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Willem II vs Excelsior with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.68

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.50 – 1.96 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.1%	6.2%	6.0%	3.9%	1.9%
1	4.7%	9.2%	9.1%	5.9%	2.9%
2	3.5%	6.9%	6.8%	4.4%	2.2%
3	1.8%	3.5%	3.4%	2.2%	1.1%
4	0.7%	1.3%	1.3%	0.8%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Willem II winDrawExcelsior win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Willem II vs Excelsior is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.68, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates an Excelsior win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (66%).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.68, 67% model probability, +12.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Willem II 27%Draw 27%Excelsior 47%

27%27%47%

47%

Excelsior Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS yes

+12.8%

Best value: Over 2.5

📈 Recent form

Willem II

Willem II come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Almere City FC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-4 at home to NEC Nijmegen.

DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
LWillem II 1-4 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
WWillem II 2-1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
WRoda 0-1 Willem IIEerste Divisie
WWillem II 1-0 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie

Excelsior

Excelsior come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Cambuur. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to PSV Eindhoven.

WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
LExcelsior 1-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WCambuur 0-4 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WDe Graafschap 1-5 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
WHeracles 3-5 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Willem II

L. AbildgaardNot in squad
A. CulumFoot Injury
T. Didillon HodlHamstring Injury
A. LachkarGroin Injury
J. SchuurmanKnock
T. VilhenaNot in squad
A. ZarroukSurgery

Excelsior

N. NaujoksNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Willem II at 27% to win and Excelsior at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an Excelsior win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Excelsior Win	47%	@ 2.28	+6.7%
Draw	27%	@ 3.40	-9.7%
Willem II Win	27%	@ 2.95	-21.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Excelsior or Draw at 1.38 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Excelsior or Draw	73%	@ 1.38	+0.5%
Willem II or Draw	53%	@ 1.60	-15.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	46%	@ 2.70	+22.8%
Over 2.5	67%	@ 1.68	+12.8%
Over 1.5	86%	@ 1.20	+3.2%
Under 3.5	54%	@ 1.44	-21.5%
Under 2.5	33%	@ 2.12	-30.4%
Under 1.5	14%	@ 4.40	-38.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	66%	@ 1.53	+1.6%
BTTS No	34%	@ 2.35	-21.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	40%
Dixon-Coles	Away	56%
GradientBoosting	Away	46%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.10 for the home side, 1.53 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Willem II vs Excelsior?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.68, with 67% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Willem II vs Excelsior?

Our model makes an Excelsior win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.5-2.0 scoreline for Willem II vs Excelsior.

What is the predicted score for Willem II vs Excelsior?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.50 for Willem II and 1.96 for Excelsior. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Willem II and Excelsior play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.