⚽ Eredivisie
Willem II vs Excelsior Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Willem II vs Excelsior in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Willem II 0-3 Excelsior
Willem II vs Excelsior finished 0-3. Excelsior won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Willem II face Excelsior in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Willem II have no wins from their last 3, while Excelsior have 2 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Excelsior win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.5-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Willem II vs Excelsior with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 4.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| 2 | 3.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Willem II vs Excelsior comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Excelsior with a +0.75 start at odds 1.29, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Excelsior win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (66%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Willem II come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Fortuna Sittard.
- LWillem II 0-1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- LAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
- DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
- LWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
Excelsior come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Utrecht.
- DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- LExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
- WWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- L. AbildgaardNot in squad
- A. CulumFoot Injury
- T. Didillon HodlHamstring Injury
- A. LachkarGroin Injury
- J. SchuurmanKnock
- A. ZarroukSurgery
- N. NaujoksNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Willem II at 27% to win and Excelsior at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an Excelsior win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior Win | 47% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
| Willem II Win | 27% | 32% | @ 2.95 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | @ 3.40 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Excelsior or Draw at 1.38 (73% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior or Draw | 73% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
| Willem II or Draw | 53% | 59% | @ 1.60 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 79% | @ 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
| Under 3.5 | 54% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 44% | @ 2.12 |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 34% | 39% | @ 2.35 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Willem II or Excelsior is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior +1.75 | 91% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Excelsior +1.5 | 90% | 84% | @ 1.13 |
| Excelsior +1.25 | 85% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Excelsior +1 | 81% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Willem II +1.75 | 80% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Excelsior +0.75 | 77% | 73% | 1.29 |
| Willem II +1.5 | 76% | 78% | 1.21 |
| Excelsior +0.5 | 73% | 67% | @ 1.43 |
| Willem II +1.25 | 70% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Excelsior +0.25 | 66% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| Willem II +1 | 64% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Excelsior 0 | 60% | 56% | @ 1.72 |
| Willem II +0.75 | 58% | 65% | 1.47 |
| Excelsior -0.25 | 54% | 47% | @ 2.03 |
| Willem II +0.5 | 53% | 59% | 1.62 |
| Excelsior -0.5 | 47% | 41% | @ 2.33 |
| Willem II +0.25 | 46% | 53% | 1.81 |
| Excelsior -0.75 | 42% | 35% | @ 2.73 |
| Willem II 0 | 40% | 44% | 2.15 |
| Excelsior -1 | 36% | 27% | @ 3.53 |
| Willem II -0.25 | 34% | 38% | 2.50 |
| Excelsior -1.25 | 30% | 24% | @ 3.92 |
| Willem II -0.5 | 27% | 33% | 2.85 |
| Excelsior -1.5 | 24% | 22% | @ 4.25 |
| Willem II -0.75 | 23% | 27% | 3.54 |
| Excelsior -1.75 | 20% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Willem II -1 | 19% | 20% | 4.80 |
| Willem II -1.25 | 15% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Willem II -1.5 | 10% | 16% | 5.90 |
| Willem II -1.75 | 9% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Willem II vs Excelsior?
Our model's main pick is Excelsior with a +0.75 start at odds 1.29, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Willem II vs Excelsior?
Our model makes an Excelsior win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.5-2.0 scoreline for Willem II vs Excelsior.
What is the predicted score for Willem II vs Excelsior?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.50 for Willem II and 1.96 for Excelsior. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Willem II and Excelsior play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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