⚽ La Liga
Espanyol vs Real Madrid Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Espanyol vs Real Madrid in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Result: Espanyol 1-2 Real Madrid
Espanyol vs Real Madrid finished 1-2. Real Madrid won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Espanyol face Real Madrid in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Espanyol won 1, Real Madrid won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Real Madrid win the most likely result at 62%, projecting a 1.0-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Espanyol vs Real Madrid with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
| 2 | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Espanyol vs Real Madrid comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Espanyol with a +2 start at odds 1.32, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Real Madrid win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 62%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Espanyol and Real Madrid. Wins shown from Espanyol’s perspective: Espanyol 1 · Real Madrid 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Espanyol | 1 – 2 | Real Madrid | L |
| 2026-05-03 | Espanyol | 0 – 2 | Real Madrid | L |
| 2025-09-20 | Real Madrid | 2 – 0 | Espanyol | L |
| 2025-02-01 | Espanyol | 1 – 0 | Real Madrid | W |
| 2024-09-21 | Real Madrid | 4 – 1 | Espanyol | L |
📈 Recent form
Espanyol come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Osasuna. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Elche.
- LEspanyol 1-3 ElcheLa Liga
- LRayo Vallecano 2-1 EspanyolLa Liga
- WOsasuna 0-2 EspanyolLa Liga
- DEspanyol 1-1 SevillaLa Liga
- LReal Sociedad 2-1 EspanyolLa Liga
Real Madrid come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Rayo Vallecano. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Atlético Madrid.
- LAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real MadridLa Liga
- WElche 2-3 Real MadridLa Liga
- WReal Madrid 4-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- WReal Madrid 2-1 InterUEFA Champions League
- LReal Betis 1-0 Real MadridLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- L. CabreraSuspended (red card)
- K. GarciaHamstring Injury
- J. PuadoKnee Injury
- R. AsencioMuscle Injury
- Eder MilitaoHamstring Injury
- EndrickMuscle Injury
- F. MendyHip Injury
- T. PitarchKnee Injury
- RodrygoKnee Injury
- A. TchouameniMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Espanyol at 14% to win and Real Madrid at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Real Madrid win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid Win | 62% | 67% | @ 1.43 |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | @ 4.60 |
| Espanyol Win | 14% | 13% | @ 7.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Real Madrid or Draw at 1.09 (84% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid or Draw | 84% | 87% | @ 1.09 |
| Espanyol or Draw | 36% | 33% | @ 2.75 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | 66% | @ 1.43 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 55% | @ 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 45% | @ 2.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 34% | @ 2.80 |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | 22% | @ 4.30 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 50% | @ 1.86 |
| BTTS No | 48% | 50% | @ 1.86 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Espanyol or Real Madrid is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid +0.75 | 87% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Real Madrid +0.5 | 84% | – | 1.09 |
| Real Madrid +0.25 | 79% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Real Madrid 0 | 74% | – | 1.17 |
| Espanyol +2 | 71% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Real Madrid -0.25 | 69% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Espanyol +1.75 | 66% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Real Madrid -0.5 | 64% | – | 1.44 |
| Espanyol +1.5 | 61% | 57% | @ 1.65 |
| Real Madrid -0.75 | 57% | 62% | 1.54 |
| Espanyol +1.25 | 55% | 52% | @ 1.87 |
| Real Madrid -1 | 51% | 56% | 1.70 |
| Espanyol +1 | 49% | 44% | @ 2.16 |
| Real Madrid -1.25 | 45% | 48% | 2.02 |
| Espanyol +0.75 | 43% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
| Real Madrid -1.5 | 39% | 43% | 2.21 |
| Real Madrid -1.75 | 34% | 36% | 2.63 |
| Espanyol +0.25 | 31% | 26% | @ 3.63 |
| Real Madrid -2 | 29% | 28% | 3.43 |
| Espanyol -0.25 | 21% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| Espanyol -0.75 | 13% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Espanyol vs Real Madrid?
Our model's main pick is Espanyol with a +2 start at odds 1.32, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.
Who is the favourite for Espanyol vs Real Madrid?
Our model makes a Real Madrid win the most likely result at 62%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.9 scoreline for Espanyol vs Real Madrid.
What is the predicted score for Espanyol vs Real Madrid?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.96 for Espanyol and 1.85 for Real Madrid. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Espanyol and Real Madrid play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Sabah FAvs
Slavia PrahaUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct16:45
Lensvs
Sporting CPUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct16:45
Arsenalvs
LilleUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct19:00
Villarrealvs
NapoliUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct19:00
Vikingvs
Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct19:00
RB Leipzigvs
PSV EindhovenUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct19:00Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.