⚽ Brazilian Série A
Vitória vs Bahia Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitória vs Bahia in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Vitória 0-2 Bahia
Vitória vs Bahia finished 0-2. Bahia won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Vitória face Bahia in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Bahia won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vitória win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitória vs Bahia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 10.4% | 12.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Vitória vs Bahia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Vitória win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Vitória and Bahia. Wins shown from Vitória’s perspective: 1 drawn · Bahia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Vitória | 0 – 2 | Bahia | L |
| 2024-08-11 | Bahia | 2 – 0 | Vitória | L |
| 2024-04-21 | Vitória | 2 – 2 | Bahia | D |
📈 Recent form
Vitória come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Grêmio. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Cruzeiro.
- LVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- DMirassol 2-2 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
- WVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
- LVitória 0-2 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
- LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
Bahia come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Athletico Paranaense.
- LAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- WBahia 2-1 RemoBrazilian Série A
- WRB Bragantino 2-3 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- WBahia 3-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
- WVitória 0-2 BahiaBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- AndersonKnee Injury
- BaralhasNot in squad
- CamutangaBroken Leg
- DuduBack Injury
- EduAchilles Tendon Injury
- Nathan MendesKnee Injury
- R. RamosKnee Injury
- RiccieliCalf Injury
- AdemirInjury
- Everton RibeiroNot in squad
- Leo VieiraKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Vitória at 38% to win and Bahia at 30%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Vitória win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória Win | 38% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Bahia Win | 30% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vitória or Draw at 1.44 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória or Draw | 68% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Bahia or Draw | 59% | 64% | @ 1.47 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 72% | @ 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 | 73% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 53% | @ 1.78 |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 47% | @ 2.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
| Under 1.5 | 26% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 54% | @ 1.71 |
| BTTS No | 47% | 46% | @ 2.02 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Vitória or Bahia is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória +1.5 | 86% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Vitória +1.25 | 82% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Bahia +1.5 | 81% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Vitória +1 | 77% | – | 1.20 |
| Bahia +1.25 | 75% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Vitória +0.75 | 72% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Bahia +1 | 70% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Vitória +0.5 | 68% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Bahia +0.75 | 64% | 71% | 1.35 |
| Vitória +0.25 | 61% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Bahia +0.5 | 59% | 63% | 1.49 |
| Vitória 0 | 54% | 52% | @ 1.87 |
| Bahia +0.25 | 52% | 58% | 1.66 |
| Vitória -0.25 | 48% | 42% | @ 2.24 |
| Bahia 0 | 46% | 48% | 2.00 |
| Vitória -0.5 | 41% | 37% | @ 2.56 |
| Bahia -0.25 | 39% | 41% | 2.33 |
| Vitória -0.75 | 36% | 29% | @ 3.23 |
| Bahia -0.5 | 33% | 35% | 2.66 |
| Vitória -1 | 30% | 22% | @ 4.40 |
| Bahia -0.75 | 28% | 28% | 3.40 |
| Vitória -1.25 | 25% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Vitória -1.5 | 19% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Bahia -1.25 | 18% | 19% | 5.00 |
| Bahia -1.5 | 14% | 17% | 5.50 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Vitória vs Bahia?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.
Who is the favourite for Vitória vs Bahia?
Our model makes a Vitória win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline for Vitória vs Bahia.
What is the predicted score for Vitória vs Bahia?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.43 for Vitória and 1.19 for Bahia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Vitória and Bahia play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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