vs
⚽ Brazilian Série A
Santos vs Mirassol Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santos vs Mirassol in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.
Santos face Mirassol in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC. Recent form: Santos have 2 wins from their last 5, while Mirassol have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Santos won 2, Mirassol won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Santos win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 2.0-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santos vs Mirassol with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Santos vs Mirassol is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, the selection our model is most confident in at 85%. On the match result, the model rates a Santos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (65%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.89 (+24.4% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Santos and Mirassol. Wins shown from Santos’s perspective: Santos 2 · 2 drawn · Mirassol 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Mirassol | 2 – 2 | Santos | D |
| 2025-11-20 | Santos | 1 – 1 | Mirassol | D |
| 2025-07-19 | Mirassol | 3 – 0 | Santos | L |
| 2025-01-17 | Santos | 2 – 1 | Mirassol | W |
| 2024-10-12 | Santos | 3 – 2 | Mirassol | W |
📈 Recent form
Santos come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Vasco DA Gama. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Atletico Paranaense.
- DMacara 0-0 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- DSantos 3-3 Alianza UniversidadSegunda División
- WVasco DA Gama 0-3 SantosBrazilian Série A
- WSantos 2-1 MacaraCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- LSantos 0-2 Atletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
Mirassol come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 10. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at home to Flamengo.
- DLDU de Quito 0-0 MirassolCONMEBOL Libertadores
- LMirassol 1-5 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
- DMirassol 1-1 LDU de QuitoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- LCruzeiro 3-1 MirassolBrazilian Série A
- LGremio 1-0 MirassolCopa Do Brasil
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Gabriel BontempoInjury
- Lucas VerissimoCalf Injury
- Vinicius LiraKnee Injury
- G. CazonattiNot in squad
- DenilsonSuspended (cards)
- EliasNot in squad
- Gustavo SilvaNot in squad
- Jose AldoMuscle Injury
- NeguebaKnee Injury
- DenilsonInjury
- Edson CariocaInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Santos at 45% to win and Mirassol at 28%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Santos win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol Win | 28% | @ 4.00 | +12.2% |
| Draw | 27% | @ 3.45 | -7.2% |
| Santos Win | 45% | @ 1.90 | -14.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Mirassol or Draw at 1.85 (54% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol or Draw | 54% | @ 1.85 | +0.4% |
| Santos or Draw | 71% | @ 1.22 | -12.7% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 44% | @ 3.26 | +43.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | @ 1.89 | +24.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | @ 1.27 | +8.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 56% | @ 1.34 | -24.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | @ 1.92 | -34.5% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 65% | @ 1.75 | +13.9% |
| BTTS No | 35% | @ 1.98 | -30.5% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Santos or Mirassol is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol -0.75 | 24% | @ 5.25 | +27.4% |
| Mirassol 0 | 42% | @ 3.00 | +24.4% |
| Mirassol -0.25 | 35% | @ 3.48 | +21.9% |
| Mirassol +0.25 | 48% | @ 2.26 | +8.3% |
| Mirassol +0.5 | 54% | @ 1.91 | +3.6% |
| Mirassol +0.75 | 60% | @ 1.70 | +2.2% |
| Mirassol +1.5 | 77% | @ 1.30 | +0.8% |
| Mirassol +1.25 | 72% | 1.38 | -1.2% |
| Mirassol +1.75 | 81% | 1.22 | -1.4% |
| Mirassol +1 | 66% | 1.48 | -2.6% |
| Santos -2 | 16% | 6.00 | -5.3% |
| Mirassol +2 | 84% | 1.12 | -5.7% |
| Santos -1 | 34% | 2.68 | -8.5% |
| Santos +0.5 | 71% | 1.24 | -11.2% |
| Santos +0.75 | 76% | 1.16 | -12.1% |
| Santos -1.25 | 28% | 3.08 | -12.6% |
| Santos -0.5 | 46% | 1.89 | -13.6% |
| Santos -0.75 | 40% | 2.16 | -13.8% |
| Santos -0.25 | 52% | 1.65 | -14.3% |
| Santos +0.25 | 65% | 1.31 | -14.9% |
| Santos 0 | 58% | 1.40 | -18.1% |
| Santos -1.75 | 19% | 4.15 | -20.2% |
| Santos -1.5 | 23% | 3.38 | -23.3% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 48% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 55% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 41% |
Our ensemble puts this selection at 85%. The model table above shows each model’s view of the match winner; this pick is on a different market (goals or handicap), where the ensemble combines all available models into the probability shown.
Our model estimates a 85% chance for this selection, while the odds of 1.32 imply 76%. That gap between our estimate and the market price is where the value lies.
Expected goals: 1.49 for the home side, 1.12 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santos vs Mirassol?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with 85% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.89 (+24.4% value).
Who is the favourite for Santos vs Mirassol?
Our model makes a Santos win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.4 scoreline for Santos vs Mirassol.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Mirassol?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.03 for Santos and 1.36 for Mirassol. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Santos and Mirassol play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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