⚽ Serie A

Bologna vs Lazio Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bologna vs Lazio in the Serie A. Kick-off Monday 24 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Bologna face Lazio in the Serie A, kicking off Monday 24 August 2026, 16:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Bologna won 2, Lazio won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bologna win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.3-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bologna vs Lazio with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.40

69%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.29 – 1.12 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.0%	10.1%	5.6%	2.1%	0.6%
1	11.6%	13.0%	7.3%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.5%	8.4%	4.7%	1.7%	0.5%
3	3.2%	3.6%	2.0%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.0%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Bologna winDrawLazio win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Bologna vs Lazio is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a Bologna win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (51%).

Best value

Lazio or Draw at odds 1.67, 59% model probability, -2.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Bologna 40%Draw 28%Lazio 31%

40%28%31%

40%

Bologna Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS no

-2.2%

Best value: Lazio or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Bologna and Lazio. Wins shown from Bologna’s perspective: Bologna 2 · 1 drawn · Lazio 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-22	Bologna	0 – 2	Lazio	L
2025-12-07	Lazio	1 – 1	Bologna	D
2025-03-16	Bologna	5 – 0	Lazio	W
2024-11-24	Lazio	3 – 0	Bologna	L
2024-02-18	Lazio	1 – 2	Bologna	W

📈 Recent form

Bologna

Bologna come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Cambuur. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Brighton.

LBrighton 1-0 BolognaFriendlies Clubs
DBologna 1-1 PisaFriendlies Clubs
WBologna 3-1 CambuurFriendlies Clubs
WBologna 2-0 Iraklis 1908Friendlies Clubs
DBologna 1-1 1. FC HeidenheimFriendlies Clubs

Lazio

Lazio come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Ostia Mare. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Mantova.

LLazio 0-2 MantovaCoppa Italia
WFrosinone 1-2 LazioFriendlies Clubs
WLazio 4-0 Ostia MareFriendlies Clubs
WAscoli 1-2 LazioFriendlies Clubs
WLazio 6-3 AvellinoFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Bologna

N. CasaleMuscle Injury

Lazio

D. CataldiMuscle Injury
A. FurlanettoKnee Injury
S. GigotNot in squad
A. RomagnoliKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Bologna at 40% to win and Lazio at 31%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Bologna win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Lazio Win	31%	@ 3.40	+6.4%
Draw	28%	@ 3.20	-9.4%
Bologna Win	40%	@ 2.15	-13.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lazio or Draw at 1.67 (59% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Lazio or Draw	59%	@ 1.67	-2.2%
Bologna or Draw	68%	@ 1.30	-12.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	69%	@ 1.40	-2.9%
Over 2.5	43%	@ 2.20	-4.8%
Under 3.5	78%	@ 1.22	-5.3%
Over 3.5	22%	@ 4.20	-6.2%
Under 2.5	57%	@ 1.65	-6.4%
Under 1.5	31%	@ 2.90	-11.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	51%	@ 1.83	-6.1%
BTTS Yes	49%	@ 1.90	-7.5%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	43%
Dixon-Coles	Home	38%
GradientBoosting	Home	40%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.40 for the home side, 1.20 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bologna vs Lazio?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with 69% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Bologna vs Lazio?

Our model makes a Bologna win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline for Bologna vs Lazio.

What is the predicted score for Bologna vs Lazio?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.29 for Bologna and 1.12 for Lazio. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Bologna and Lazio play?

Kick-off is Monday 24 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.