Mon 24 Aug4-0Finished

⚽ Serie A

AS Roma vs Fiorentina Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AS Roma vs Fiorentina in the Serie A. Kick-off Monday 24 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina

AS Roma vs Fiorentina finished 4-0. AS Roma won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

AS Roma face Fiorentina in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Monday 24 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, AS Roma won 4, Fiorentina won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 57%, projecting a 1.7-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AS Roma vs Fiorentina with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.72 – 0.93 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	6.6%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%
1	12.2%	11.3%	5.3%	1.6%	0.4%
2	10.5%	9.7%	4.5%	1.4%	0.3%
3	6.0%	5.6%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.6%	2.4%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

AS Roma winDrawFiorentina win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AS Roma vs Fiorentina comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an AS Roma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 57%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points no (50%).

📊 Key numbers

AS Roma 57%Draw 26%Fiorentina 17%

57%26%17%

57%

AS Roma Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between AS Roma and Fiorentina. Wins shown from AS Roma’s perspective: AS Roma 4 · Fiorentina 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-24	AS Roma	4 – 0	Fiorentina	W
2026-05-04	AS Roma	4 – 0	Fiorentina	W
2025-10-05	Fiorentina	1 – 2	AS Roma	W
2025-05-04	AS Roma	1 – 0	Fiorentina	W
2024-10-27	Fiorentina	5 – 1	AS Roma	L

📈 Recent form

AS Roma

AS Roma come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Lecce. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DAS Roma 2-2 InterSerie A
WTorino 0-2 AS RomaSerie A
DFenerbahçe 1-1 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
WAS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSerie A
WLecce 0-4 AS RomaSerie A

Fiorentina

Fiorentina come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Pisa. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Torino.

DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
WFiorentina 3-0 PisaCoppa Italia
WVenezia 2-4 FiorentinaSerie A
LFiorentina 1-2 TorinoSerie A
LFiorentina 0-3 FrosinoneSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

AS Roma

M. BahKnee Injury
L. PellegriniThigh Injury

Fiorentina

F. ParisiKnee Injury
R. SottilBack Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AS Roma at 57% to win and Fiorentina at 17%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AS Roma Win	57%	58%	@ 1.60
Draw	26%	25%	@ 3.75
Fiorentina Win	17%	17%	@ 5.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AS Roma or Draw at 1.13 (81% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AS Roma or Draw	81%	83%	@ 1.13
Fiorentina or Draw	41%	42%	@ 2.28

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	72%	71%	@ 1.32
Under 2.5	51%	51%	@ 1.87
Over 2.5	49%	49%	@ 1.92
Over 3.5	28%	29%	@ 3.30
Under 1.5	26%	27%	@ 3.55

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	50%	51%	@ 1.82
BTTS Yes	50%	49%	@ 1.92

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when AS Roma or Fiorentina is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AS Roma +0.75	84%	85%	1.12
AS Roma +0.5	81%	80%	1.17
AS Roma +0.25	76%	78%	1.23
Fiorentina +2	75%	80%	1.20
Fiorentina +1.75	71%	74%	1.30
AS Roma 0	70%	74%	1.28
Fiorentina +1.5	66%	67%	1.41
AS Roma -0.25	64%	64%	1.49
Fiorentina +1.25	60%	63%	1.51
AS Roma -0.5	59%	57%	1.66
Fiorentina +1	54%	57%	1.68
AS Roma -0.75	52%	51%	1.91
Fiorentina +0.75	48%	49%	1.98
AS Roma -1	46%	43%	@ 2.22
Fiorentina +0.5	41%	43%	2.22
AS Roma -1.25	40%	37%	@ 2.58
Fiorentina +0.25	36%	36%	2.67
AS Roma -1.5	34%	33%	2.86
Fiorentina 0	30%	26%	@ 3.71
AS Roma -1.75	29%	26%	@ 3.61
AS Roma -2	25%	20%	@ 4.78
Fiorentina -0.25	24%	22%	@ 4.32
Fiorentina -0.5	19%	20%	4.78
Fiorentina -0.75	16%	15%	6.40

📈 How the market moved

AS Roma 58%Draw 25%Fiorentina 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 57%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline for AS Roma vs Fiorentina.

What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.72 for AS Roma and 0.93 for Fiorentina. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AS Roma and Fiorentina play?

Kick-off is Monday 24 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.