⚽ Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs Nashville SC Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York City FC vs Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Friday 04 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

New York City FC face Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Friday 04 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: New York City FC have 1 win from their last 5, while Nashville SC have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, New York City FC won 2, Nashville SC won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.3-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York City FC vs Nashville SC with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.38

72%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.28 – 1.40 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	9.6%	6.7%	3.1%	1.1%
1	8.8%	12.3%	8.6%	4.0%	1.4%
2	5.6%	7.9%	5.5%	2.6%	0.9%
3	2.4%	3.4%	2.3%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.8%	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

New York City FC winDrawNashville SC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for New York City FC vs Nashville SC is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates a New York City FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.38, 72% model probability, -0.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

New York City FC 36%Draw 28%Nashville SC 36%

36%28%36%

36%

New York City FC Win

50%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

-0.8%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between New York City FC and Nashville SC. Wins shown from New York City FC’s perspective: New York City FC 2 · Nashville SC 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-24	Nashville SC	2 – 1	New York City FC	L
2024-10-06	New York City FC	3 – 1	Nashville SC	W
2024-06-23	Nashville SC	1 – 0	New York City FC	L
2023-04-15	New York City FC	2 – 1	Nashville SC	W
2023-02-25	Nashville SC	2 – 0	New York City FC	L

📈 Recent form

New York City FC

New York City FC come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at FC Cincinnati.

DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
DNew England Revolution 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
LFC Cincinnati 2-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
LNew York City FC 2-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
LNew York City FC 1-2 NecaxaLeagues Cup

Nashville SC

Nashville SC come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to FC Cincinnati. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Monterrey.

WNashville SC 4-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
WNashville SC 3-2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
WNew York Red Bulls 0-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
WNashville SC 4-1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
LMonterrey 2-1 Nashville SCLeagues Cup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

New York City FC

D. BaieraKnee Injury
A. FarnosInjury
A. MartinezKnee Injury
M. MoralezKnee Injury
A. O'NeillAnkle Injury
Talles MagnoMuscle Injury
K. TrewinAnkle Injury
H. WolfLeg Injury

Nashville SC

W. MadrigalLower-Body Injury
C. ApplewhiteLower-Body Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices New York City FC at 36% to win and Nashville SC at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Nashville SC Win	36%	@ 2.65	-4.8%
Draw	28%	@ 3.40	-6.2%
New York City FC Win	36%	@ 2.48	-9.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Nashville SC or Draw at 1.50 (63% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Nashville SC or Draw	63%	@ 1.50	-5.6%
New York City FC or Draw	64%	@ 1.45	-7.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	25%	@ 3.95	-0.3%
Under 2.5	50%	@ 2.00	-0.3%
Under 3.5	72%	@ 1.38	-0.8%
Over 1.5	75%	@ 1.23	-8.0%
Over 2.5	50%	@ 1.77	-11.2%
Over 3.5	28%	@ 2.95	-17.0%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	47%	@ 2.20	+3.8%
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 1.60	-15.5%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	45%
Dixon-Coles	Away	51%
GradientBoosting	Home	37%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.30 for the home side, 1.29 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for New York City FC vs Nashville SC?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.38, with 72% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs Nashville SC?

Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline for New York City FC vs Nashville SC.

What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs Nashville SC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.28 for New York City FC and 1.40 for Nashville SC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do New York City FC and Nashville SC play?

Kick-off is Friday 04 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.