Thu 17 Sep4-1Finished

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Beşiktaş vs Marseille Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Beşiktaş vs Marseille in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Beşiktaş 4-1 Marseille

Beşiktaş vs Marseille finished 4-1. Beşiktaş won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.67, landed.

Beşiktaş face Marseille in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Beşiktaş win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 2.1-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Beşiktaş vs Marseille with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Marseille +1.75 @ 1.28

85%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.08 – 1.42 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.0%	4.3%	3.0%	1.4%	0.5%
1	6.3%	8.9%	6.3%	3.0%	1.1%
2	6.5%	9.3%	6.6%	3.1%	1.1%
3	4.5%	6.4%	4.6%	2.2%	0.8%
4	2.4%	3.3%	2.4%	1.1%	0.4%

Projected score: 2-1

Beşiktaş winDrawMarseille win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Beşiktaş vs Marseille comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Marseille with a +1.75 start at odds 1.28, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Beşiktaş win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (66%).

📊 Key numbers

Beşiktaş 39%Draw 26%Marseille 34%

39%26%34%

39%

Beşiktaş Win

68%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Beşiktaş

Beşiktaş come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 6-2 at home to Çorum FK. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Amed.

LAmed 3-2 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
WBeşiktaş 4-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
WBeşiktaş 3-0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
WFenerbahçe 1-2 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
WBeşiktaş 6-2 Çorum FKSüper Lig

Marseille

Marseille come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Paris Saint-Germain.

LMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
LBeşiktaş 4-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
LRennes 1-0 MarseilleLigue 1
LMarseille 2-3 Paris FCLigue 1
LMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Beşiktaş

C. KelesOff the roster
M. RashicaOff the roster
L. TrossardInjury
O. KokcuToe Injury

Marseille

G. KondogbiaInjury
T. NnadiInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Beşiktaş at 39% to win and Marseille at 34%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Beşiktaş win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Beşiktaş Win	39%	53%	@ 1.80
Marseille Win	34%	24%	@ 3.90
Draw	26%	23%	@ 4.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Beşiktaş or Draw at 1.25 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Beşiktaş or Draw	66%	76%	@ 1.25
Marseille or Draw	61%	47%	@ 1.95

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.1-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	81%	@ 1.17
Over 2.5	68%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 3.5	54%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 3.5	46%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 2.5	32%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	14%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	66%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	34%	41%	@ 2.25

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Beşiktaş or Marseille is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marseille +2	88%	80%	@ 1.18
Marseille +1.75	85%	74%	@ 1.28
Marseille +1.5	82%	68%	@ 1.40
Marseille +1.25	77%	64%	@ 1.49
Beşiktaş +1	76%	86%	1.10
Marseille +1	71%	59%	@ 1.61
Beşiktaş +0.75	71%	82%	1.16
Marseille +0.75	66%	52%	@ 1.85
Beşiktaş +0.5	66%	75%	1.26
Marseille +0.5	61%	46%	@ 2.06
Beşiktaş +0.25	59%	74%	1.28
Marseille +0.25	54%	39%	@ 2.42
Beşiktaş 0	52%	70%	1.36
Marseille 0	48%	30%	@ 3.13
Beşiktaş -0.25	46%	61%	1.57
Marseille -0.25	41%	26%	@ 3.58
Beşiktaş -0.5	39%	54%	1.77
Marseille -0.5	34%	25%	@ 3.79
Beşiktaş -0.75	34%	48%	2.02
Marseille -0.75	29%	18%	@ 5.25
Beşiktaş -1	29%	41%	2.33
Marseille -1	24%	14%	@ 7.00
Beşiktaş -1.25	23%	36%	2.65
Beşiktaş -1.5	18%	32%	2.93
Beşiktaş -1.75	15%	26%	3.64
Beşiktaş -2	12%	20%	4.65

📈 How the market moved

Beşiktaş 53%Draw 23%Marseille 24%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Beşiktaş vs Marseille?

Our model's main pick is Marseille with a +1.75 start at odds 1.28, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Beşiktaş vs Marseille?

Our model makes a Beşiktaş win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 2.1-1.4 scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Marseille.

What is the predicted score for Beşiktaş vs Marseille?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.08 for Beşiktaş and 1.42 for Marseille. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Beşiktaş and Marseille play?

Kick-off is Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.