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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
Paraguay vs Australia Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Paraguay vs Australia at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Friday 26 June 2026, 02:00 UTC at Levi's Stadium – San Francisco Bay Area.
Paraguay face Australia in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, kicking off Friday 26 June 2026, 02:00 UTC at Levi's Stadium – San Francisco Bay Area. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Australia win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.0-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Paraguay vs Australia with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0% | 12.9% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 14.5% | 13.5% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Our prediction for Paraguay vs Australia is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Australia or the draw at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates an Australia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points no (70%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 1.65 (+14.8% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Paraguay at 20% to win and Australia at 48%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes an Australia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia Win | 48% | 3.60 | +74.2% |
| Draw | 32% | 2.22 | -28.7% |
| Paraguay Win | 20% | 2.92 | -43.1% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Australia or the draw at 1.38 (80% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 80% | 1.38 | +11.1% |
| Paraguay or Australia – Double Chance (12) | 68% | 1.57 | +6.6% |
| Paraguay or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 52% | 1.28 | -34.0% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 75% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 49% | 2.25 | +9.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 75% | 1.38 | +3.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 90% | 1.13 | +2.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 51% | 1.62 | -16.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 3.00 | -25.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 5.75 | -44.8% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 70%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 70% | 1.65 | +14.8% |
| BTTS Yes | 30% | 2.10 | -36.2% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Paraguay or Australia is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay +2.5 | 93% | 1.01 | -5.8% |
| Paraguay +1.5 | 79% | 1.02 | -19.1% |
| Paraguay +0.5 | 52% | 1.27 | -34.5% |
| Paraguay -0.5 | 20% | 2.85 | -44.4% |
| Paraguay -1.5 | 5% | 6.40 | -69.3% |
| Paraguay -2.5 | 1% | 9.30 | -91.6% |
| Paraguay -3.5 | 0% | 50.00 | -95.0% |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Paraguay vs Australia?
Our main pick is Australia or the draw at odds 1.38, with 80% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 1.65 (+14.8% value).
Who is the favourite for Paraguay vs Australia?
Our model makes an Australia win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.0-0.9 scoreline for Paraguay vs Australia.
What is the predicted score for Paraguay vs Australia?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.04 for Paraguay and 0.93 for Australia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Paraguay and Australia play?
Kick-off is Friday 26 June 2026, 02:00 UTC at Levi's Stadium – San Francisco Bay Area.
Where is Paraguay vs Australia being played?
The match takes place at Levi's Stadium – San Francisco Bay Area, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.