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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
USA vs Paraguay Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for USA vs Paraguay at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Saturday 13 June 2026, 01:00 UTC at SoFi Stadium – Inglewood.
Result: USA 4-1 Paraguay
USA vs Paraguay finished 4-1. USA won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.42, landed.
USA met Paraguay in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, finishing 4-1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an USA win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for USA vs Paraguay with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 11.2% | 12.0% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.8% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for USA vs Paraguay is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.42, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates an USA win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (52%).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices USA at 49% to win and Paraguay at 26%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes an USA win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay Win | 26% | 4.30 | +10.5% |
| USA Win | 49% | 1.91 | -6.2% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.30 | -16.8% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is USA or Paraguay (draw excluded) at 1.28 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA or Paraguay – Double Chance (12) | 75% | 1.28 | -4.3% |
| Paraguay or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 51% | 1.85 | -5.8% |
| USA or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 74% | 1.22 | -9.4% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 4.20 | +14.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.25 | +10.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 1.42 | +5.2% |
| Under 3.5 | 73% | 1.22 | -11.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.62 | -17.7% |
| Under 1.5 | 26% | 2.80 | -27.5% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.95 | +1.4% |
| BTTS No | 48% | 1.75 | -16.0% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when USA or Paraguay is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA +2.5 | 97% | 1.01 | -1.8% |
| USA -0.5 | 49% | 1.91 | -6.2% |
| USA +1.5 | 90% | 1.02 | -7.9% |
| USA +0.5 | 74% | 1.23 | -8.6% |
| USA -1.5 | 25% | 3.55 | -9.8% |
| USA -2.5 | 10% | 7.60 | -20.2% |
| USA -3.5 | 4% | 13.00 | -54.5% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the USA vs Paraguay prediction correct?
USA vs Paraguay finished 4-1. Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.42, landed.
What is the prediction for USA vs Paraguay?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.42, with 74% model confidence.
Who is the favourite for USA vs Paraguay?
Our model makes an USA win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for USA vs Paraguay.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Paraguay?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 1.57 for USA and 1.07 for Paraguay. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do USA and Paraguay play?
Kick-off is Saturday 13 June 2026, 01:00 UTC at SoFi Stadium – Inglewood.
Where is USA vs Paraguay being played?
The match takes place at SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.