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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
Sweden vs Tunisia Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sweden vs Tunisia at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Monday 15 June 2026, 02:00 UTC at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey.
Result: Sweden 5-1 Tunisia
Sweden vs Tunisia finished 5-1. Sweden won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.40, landed.
Sweden met Tunisia in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey, finishing 5-1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Tunisia win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sweden vs Tunisia with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 13.4% | 12.4% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 9.8% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Sweden vs Tunisia is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Tunisia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (53%). Separately, the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price is Tunisia or the draw at odds 1.85 (+33.6% model edge).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Sweden at 28% to win and Tunisia at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Tunisia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia Win | 47% | 4.00 | +88.0% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.35 | -15.2% |
| Sweden Win | 28% | 1.90 | -47.2% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Tunisia or the draw at 1.85 (72% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 72% | 1.85 | +33.6% |
| Sweden or Tunisia – Double Chance (12) | 75% | 1.25 | -6.6% |
| Sweden or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 53% | 1.22 | -35.3% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 4.20 | +18.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.20 | +10.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 1.40 | +4.6% |
| Under 3.5 | 72% | 1.22 | -12.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.65 | -17.7% |
| Under 1.5 | 25% | 2.90 | -26.6% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.95 | +3.9% |
| BTTS No | 47% | 1.77 | -17.3% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sweden or Tunisia is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden +2.5 | 90% | 1.01 | -8.8% |
| Sweden +1.5 | 76% | 1.01 | -23.1% |
| Sweden +0.5 | 53% | 1.23 | -34.8% |
| Sweden -0.5 | 28% | 1.90 | -47.2% |
| Sweden -1.5 | 11% | 3.45 | -62.4% |
| Sweden -2.5 | 3% | 7.10 | -76.6% |
| Sweden -3.5 | 1% | 13.00 | -89.6% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Sweden vs Tunisia prediction correct?
Sweden vs Tunisia finished 5-1. Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.40, landed.
What is the prediction for Sweden vs Tunisia?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 75% model probability. The biggest separate model edge is Tunisia or the draw at 1.85 (+33.6% model edge).
Who is the favourite for Sweden vs Tunisia?
Our model makes a Tunisia win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline for Sweden vs Tunisia.
What is the predicted score for Sweden vs Tunisia?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.47 for Sweden and 0.93 for Tunisia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Sweden and Tunisia play?
Kick-off is Monday 15 June 2026, 02:00 UTC at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey.
Where is Sweden vs Tunisia being played?
The match takes place at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then shown next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
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