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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
France vs Senegal Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for France vs Senegal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Tuesday 16 June 2026, 19:00 UTC at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford.
Result: France 3-1 Senegal
France vs Senegal finished 3-1. France won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.33, did not land.
France met Senegal in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, finishing 3-1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a France win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.9-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for France vs Senegal with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.8% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 12.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 7.7% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for France vs Senegal is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 84%. On the match result, the model rates a France win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean under 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points no (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Senegal or the draw at odds 2.50 (+27.5% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices France at 49% to win and Senegal at 23%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a France win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal Win | 23% | 6.60 | +49.2% |
| Draw | 28% | 4.10 | +16.4% |
| France Win | 49% | 1.50 | -26.5% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Senegal or the draw at 2.50 (51% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 51% | 2.50 | +27.5% |
| France or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 77% | 1.11 | -14.1% |
| France or Senegal – Double Chance (12) | 72% | 1.18 | -15.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 64% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 38% | 3.50 | +31.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.90 | +22.6% |
| Under 3.5 | 84% | 1.33 | +11.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 1.28 | -20.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 1.85 | -34.3% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 3.25 | -46.4% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.77 | +5.7% |
| BTTS Yes | 40% | 1.95 | -21.4% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when France or Senegal is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| France +1.5 | 93% | 1.01 | -6.1% |
| France +0.5 | 77% | 1.12 | -13.3% |
| France -0.5 | 49% | 1.50 | -26.5% |
| France -1.5 | 23% | 2.30 | -46.6% |
| France -2.5 | 8% | 4.40 | -62.6% |
| France -3.5 | 2% | 8.80 | -78.0% |
| France -4.5 | 1% | 21.00 | -87.4% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the France vs Senegal prediction correct?
France vs Senegal finished 3-1. Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.33, did not land.
What is the prediction for France vs Senegal?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with 84% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Senegal or the draw at 2.50 (+27.5% value).
Who is the favourite for France vs Senegal?
Our model makes a France win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.9-0.8 scoreline for France vs Senegal.
What is the predicted score for France vs Senegal?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 1.90 for France and 0.80 for Senegal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do France and Senegal play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 16 June 2026, 19:00 UTC at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford.
Where is France vs Senegal being played?
The match takes place at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.